ES Journal - 2021/2022

Relentless said:
You're right - you don't know who will win. But the math will tell you which has a better chance. I prefer to have statistics / probabilities on my side.

After all - this is a game of math apart from the psych.
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Yeah, exactly market could dump 100 points here in a minute, but it's still less probability over time to short moves like this (particularly if looking for anything more than a scalp or small to at best medium size down move).

For me no shorts today, either long or flat only options I am using today.
 
Concinnity said:
Yeah, exactly market could dump 100 points here in a minute, but it's still less probability over time to short moves like this (particularly if looking for anything more than a scalp or small to at best medium size down move).

For me no shorts today, either long or flat only options I am using today.
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It's like... if you have a system that provides a strong edge to trade counter trend then by all means.

In general though it has never paid to try and pick tops / bottoms. Overall its a war you won't win. Days like today are those good days where you just take a position (and sure as hell not fight the trend) with the trend and keep adding if you your style doesn't have you putting on a full position right out of the gate.
 
Relentless said:
It's like... if you have a system that provides a strong edge to trade counter trend then by all means.

In general though it has never paid to try and pick tops / bottoms. Overall its a war you won't win. Days like today are those good days where you just take a position (and sure as hell not fight the trend) with the trend and keep adding if you your style doesn't have you putting on a full position right out of the gate.
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Agree. I do trade complete reversals as well though, but as with most things context is important. If the larger chart is still regained and bullish, than you can trade reversals on smaller time frames more aggressively (essentially liquidity grabs breaking relative or new lows).

Recently as discussed on here the Weekly chart regained which is bullish. So knowing that, trying to catch a complete reversal on Daily on smaller time frames, has decreased probability not only in win rate, but even if the trade does work it's likely to pay out less.

If the Weekly didn't regain, and we had outstanding relative lows not tested and momentum down, than that changes everything and makes taking reversals and fading up moves, much more of a quality trade.
 
Concinnity said:
Agree. I do trade complete reversals as well though, but as with most things context is important. If the larger chart is still regained and bullish, than you can trade reversals on smaller time frames more aggressively (essentially liquidity grabs breaking relative or new lows).

Recently as discussed on here the Weekly chart regained which is bullish. So knowing that, trying to catch a complete reversal on Daily on smaller time frames, has decreased probability not only in win rate, but even if the trade does work it's likely to pay out less.

If the Weekly didn't regain, and we had outstanding relative lows not tested and momentum down, than that changes everything and makes taking reversals and fading up moves, much more of a quality trade.
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I only trade one time frame. That being said...

Context is king.
 
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