ES Journal - 2021/2022

[mervyn]

Same here. I need 15 points get get back my 3775 entry, hope for another 150 points in the next two weeks during the earnings, targeting 3925 exit. Then long March contract for the holidays rally.

 

[Wide Tailz]

What we really need to know is when @Overnight starts to get bullish.

 

[Sekiyo]

Below 3.8k there’s nothing bullish

 

[Overnight]

What we really need to know is when @Overnight starts to get bullish.

I have been bullish since I entered my Dec MNQ contract in August at 13634.75. If I felt bearish, I would have closed the position at a loss and gone short. But because I am a perma-bull I cannot do that, because there is always something around the corner that can change things in a down-trending market. I learned that lesson hard in all the other times I bailed from my longs only to see them reverse. This year is the outlier, which is why I am sitting on hands and not layering in until the bullish sign occurs, which is the Fed pausing of hikes and inflation revering course.

 

[formikatrading]

As if it were that easy to identify when to get back in the markets.

I am sitting on hands and not layering in until the bullish sign occurs, which is the Fed pausing of hikes and inflation revering course.

 

[Overnight]

As if it were that easy to identify when to get back in the markets.

Yes, it is that easy for swing traders. Go look at Q4 2018.

 

[schizo]

I have been bullish since I entered my Dec MNQ contract in August at 13634.75.

This year is the outlier, which is why I am sitting on hands and not layering in until the bullish sign occurs, which is the Fed pausing of hikes and inflation revering course.

If you were a whale trading big blocks, I would be sympathetic to your reasons. But for a guy who trades only 1 lot of MNQ, your rationale comes across as pretty hollow. Just how much was the drawdown from where you entered to the lowest point on the daily chart? You sat through all that with 1 lot, hoping for a turnaround. You could have just simply reversed and went short and made money.

Plus, you need to get your head around the fact that market does not always offer ample opportunities like now. You don't get 100 point rallies (or selloffs) in a dull bull market. Only in a bear market. And bear markets only happen once every 10-15 years. Next time, you might not be around.

 

[schizo]

Not settling for this yet. I am betting on Xmas rally from here.

You expect 3 months of rally? Don't be surprised if the grinch shows up prematurely. I think by the start of November, we'll see some good bungy jumping.

 

[Master Pu]

You expect 3 months of rally? Don't be surprised if the grinch shows up prematurely. I think by the start of November, we'll see some good bungy jumping.

Overall expect a rally, so will play both sides until and if we get there, wherever that may be.

 

[Overnight]

...You could have just simply reversed and went short and made money...

If I had done that (switched to short) at the point I sold at the previous dips where I thought the market would have continued going lower, I would have blown-out my account. Thus the reason I am in stand-still mode currently. Because this time it has been different. To answer your question of how low the drawdown went on a daily chart? I don't know, I don't trade time-based bars. But lowest on close was around -$5800.

My time-stands-still trade...

At least I am still in a trade. I don't think you can criticize my method without being in the shit with me as a swing trader.