ES Journal - 2021/2022

Thank you dear market for giving me such abundant opportunities to make money lately. You're really doing your part for sure and I sincerely appreciate it from the bottom of my heart.

I'm sorry that I'm not always doing my part and still mess up once in a while, but I'm doing my best to get better.

Thank you so much! :)

EDIT: Make that 46.25 on the trailing stop. Mid-point here.

EDIT 2: And stopped out on that trailing stop for 17 points giving back 6 points of unrealized. If I were greatly confident in new highs I could just have held B/E, but I'm not and it seems stupid to let a winner go back to zero.

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My read on the VIX is that it will be up on the day -- already up a bit. May keep a lid on the market today. Also, daily breadth wasn't as strong yesterday.
 
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This is not a good development for the bulls. Truly, it means jack sh*t at this point as this market is wobbly and one shouldn't read too much into short term gyrations. We're still holding yesterday's close here.

But for a big face ripper bull week like many have been hoping for it's not ideal to drop back inside last week's range (25.25 is last weeks RTH range high).

Best would be if we hold that 3700 level at least, but if we drop below 25 and can't find a bid, I think the face ripper fizzled out.
 
Market has been following the 2002 pattern very closely for past several months. This is 2002 pattern once the market bottomed. Just using this as a general road map to the extent the "face ripper" continues.

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formikatrading said:
Market has been following the 2002 pattern very closely for past several months. This is 2002 pattern once the market bottomed. Just using this as a general road map to the extent the "face ripper" continues.
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If you want to use 2002 as a parallell - wasn't that a bear market lasting two years (2000-2002) and correcting down nearly 50%?

If so, seems like maybe you're one year early?
 
The parallel is a bear market, in mid-term election year in October, year ending in 2. The market rallied close to 20% from the October low. It then peaked and made the final low in March 2003, although the absolute low for some sectors was the October low. I'm not saying the bear market is over.

Laissez Faire said:
If you want to use 2002 as a parallell - wasn't that a bear market lasting two years (2000-2002) and correcting down nearly 50%?

If so, seems like maybe you're one year early?
More...
 
I love such kind of analysis myself, but, the odds are rarely 100%. Even September which is a lousy month statistically have a few green months in the mix.

I maintain my simple view that the conditions that have supported the market for the last 10 years are gone and reversed for now. In absence of that - any rally will be short lived.

I may easily be wrong. :)
 
FWIW, here is the 2002 / 2022 chart going into last Thursday. I'm not expecting 100% (does anyone ever know 100%?) -- just that cycles, seasonal patterns, sentiment are all "favorable" in the current time period. I saw some technical improvements starting last week and have seen continued overall follow-thru this week. But I have a couple of indicators that haven't confirmed yet - -including the VIX trend which I showed. Stay flexible!

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Laissez Faire said:
I love such kind of analysis myself, but, the odds are rarely 100%. Even September which is a lousy month statistically have a few green months in the mix.

I maintain my simple view that the conditions that have supported the market for the last 10 years are gone and reversed for now. In absence of that - any rally will be short lived.

I may easily be wrong. :)
More...
 
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