ES Journal - 2021/2022

[SunTrader]

A wise guy once said that if you're consistently getting stopped out you should reverse engineer your strategy.

True, a wise guy.

Not a guy who is wise.

 

[SunTrader]

Admittedly, have been looking for a bottom because of the overall bearish "conditions" BUT I wasn't looking at what the market was telling me. Thanks for calling me out on that -- you can look for things that support your bias. On the other hand, a few observations from yesterday:

1) They shot the generals (AAPL, etc.)
2) The bears had their chance to crush the market and it didn't happen.
3) Stocks above 200-day MAs, in addition to other breadth indicators I use, did not make new lows for this cycle.
4) VIX lost some momentum despite the market decline.

Honestly, I didn't want to be bullish today given the seasonal tendency for today but indicators suggesting otherwise to me (not wishful thinking).

I see nothing bullish about the above.

Especially 1 & 2

Do you believe the shooting of the generals is done? And Bears don't have to crush markets every single trading day during a downtrend.

 

[Laissez Faire]

True, a wise guy.

Not a guy who is wise.

And your disagreement is what exactly?

 

[SunTrader]

And your disagreement is what exactly?

I thought that is what you meant a "wise guy".

But if you seriously mean just reverse engineer a loser into a winner, I've heard it simplistically mention often enough but no evidence that I know whatsoever to support it.

 

[Laissez Faire]

But if you seriously mean just reverse engineer a loser into a winner, I've heard it simplistically mention often enough but no evidence that I know whatsoever to support it.

Well, futures trading is a zero sum game. If you're consistently losing it's simple enough. Do the opposite and you'll consistently win.

Another advice on the same theme is that if one is consistently stopping out one may consider putting the entry where the intended stop is instead....

 

[sidbunch]

'im completley talking to myself in my new journal so might start posting my trades here once i meet my target

 

[SunTrader]

Well, futures trading is a zero sum game. If you're consistently losing it's simple enough. Do the opposite and you'll consistently win.

Another advice on the same theme is that if one is consistently stopping out one may consider putting the entry where the intended stop is instead....

If only ... it was so simple.

Everyone whoever lost an account would do it the next time around.

Or how about anyone new to trading hearing about it, they would win right from the start.

 

[SunTrader]

As everyone knows "markets hate uncertainty" which currently obviously includes bear market + interest rates + Russia/Ukraine so likely there would be much buying going into the weekend. Of course I could be completely off-base.

 

[Wide Tailz]

Possibly the beginnings of the momentum divergences seen at double bottom swing low (SPY):

Regarding the reversal of buttons when stops are always hit - I've tried this and it actually worked, on the shorter time frames! For me, the better solution was to move my entried and exits a quarter to half wave later in the sequence. Wave 2, at the end, has always been the sweet spot.

*edit- B waves are also second waves. Current move getting mature:

 

[SunTrader]

Just noticed $DXY daily chart a few days ago was at TD Sell Sequential bar# 11 so a top, even if only a short term one, might be close.

While weekly chart is also at bar# 11 so longer term top might be a month or so away - EOY possibly.