ES Journal - 2021/2022

Overnight · Sep 29, 2022

If we get a bounce by EOD tomorrow, I'm gonna claim a short-term bottom here until next major eco print. A drop-to-rise-to-drop-to rise over a 4-session stretch has been quite rare in this downtrend. Basically a double-bottom.

Wide Tailz · Sep 29, 2022

schizo said:
What I meant was it almost always turns around as soon as it stops me out. I've seen this time and time again and my stops are pretty arbitrary, namely I don't place them at any technically important areas.

I've wondered for years of my stops are someone else's target!

SunTrader · Sep 29, 2022

Overnight said:
If we get a bounce by EOD tomorrow, I'm gonna claim a short-term bottom here until next major eco print. A drop-to-rise-to-drop-to rise over a 4-session stretch has been quite rare in this downtrend. Basically a double-bottom.

Wave 4's are often erratic, confusing and most of all overlapping.

Handle123 · Sep 29, 2022

schizo said:
If you fade my stops, I assure you will be rich.

Naaaa, that's when you hit 23 winners in a row.

schizo · Sep 30, 2022

Overnight said:
If we get a bounce by EOD tomorrow, I'm gonna claim a short-term bottom here until next major eco print. A drop-to-rise-to-drop-to rise over a 4-session stretch has been quite rare in this downtrend. Basically a double-bottom.

That's a good plan. But from the way ES is behaving tonight, the chance of that happening seems low. And if it ever cracks below Wednesday's low, ya better get the hell out of the way. It's gonna get dizzy.

formikatrading · Sep 30, 2022

Decent chance of finishing up today. @Overnight was on it. Lots of positive breadth divergences on yesterday's decline. Seasonality is weak today but we're through the worst part of seasonality. If ES clears 3700, this thing will get jiggy. Let's see what happens today.

Laissez Faire · Sep 30, 2022

formikatrading said:
Decent chance of finishing up today. @Overnight was on it. Lots of positive breadth divergences on yesterday's decline. Seasonality is weak today but we're through the worst part of seasonality. If ES clears 3700, this thing will get jiggy. Let's see what happens today.

But you always say that...

Last trading day of September today. No edge on that basis alone as far as I can see. If we find a bottom here - I have a hunch it will only be temporary.

Laissez Faire · Sep 30, 2022

Handle123 said:
Naaaa, that's when you hit 23 winners in a row.

Not if those are 1 tick winners...

Laissez Faire · Sep 30, 2022

Wide Tailz said:
I've wondered for years of my stops are someone else's target!

A wise guy once said that if you're consistently getting stopped out you should reverse engineer your strategy.

formikatrading · Sep 30, 2022

Admittedly, have been looking for a bottom because of the overall bearish "conditions" BUT I wasn't looking at what the market was telling me. Thanks for calling me out on that -- you can look for things that support your bias. On the other hand, a few observations from yesterday:

1) They shot the generals (AAPL, etc.)
2) The bears had their chance to crush the market and it didn't happen.
3) Stocks above 200-day MAs, in addition to other breadth indicators I use, did not make new lows for this cycle.
4) VIX lost some momentum despite the market decline.

Honestly, I didn't want to be bullish today given the seasonal tendency for today but indicators suggesting otherwise to me (not wishful thinking). I should add, though, we don't have confirmation of anything so we'll see what happens. I am positioned bullish so either sailing into the sunset or going down with the ship today.

Laissez Faire said:
But you always say that...

Last trading day of September today. No edge on that basis alone as far as I can see. If we find a bottom here - I have a hunch it will only be temporary.