ES Journal - 2021/2022

Laissez Faire said:
Probably because we just completed the longest and largest bull market in history. People are conditioned to BTFD. Even the bears... :)
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True traders don't get conditioned/biased to either side.

Not conducive to long term success, beyond even long bull market.

I'm not stupid I have grabbed an occasional long trade during a quick pop but after exiting, go immediately back into looking to go short with the overall trend. Almost all of my focus is staying with the trend. Otherwise I'll miss out on the bigger and relatively "easier" money to be made.

Different things being said by folks here (and in other topics) like drop is very orderly. So?

Markets are oversold. Again so?

Looks primed for reversal tomorrow. Wait till it comes and maybe materializes.

FED is bound to step in soon. Doubtful but again wait and see.

But none of this matters on a 5 minute chart.

Said my piece. :banghead: :)
 
Laissez Faire said:
To be clear, the condition I checked for:

6 in a row where both:

a) Net change was negative

b) Close below Open (which gives the red candle) was negative

Also, I use the RTH session template for this as what I'm really looking at for daily charts is the SPX.

If you get 19 instances, I have an error in my dataset, but I suspect not. Would be nice to clarify.
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Ok again RTH only is a non-starter for me - so your comment stands as you put it.
 
Concinnity said:
Some interesting stats to keep in mind for sure. Would like the long side better if NQ/RTY had also broken it's June lows and not have them outstanding, think that is likely to come sooner than later.

In even half way normal circumstances ES 3800 ish and NQ 11700 ish shouldn't be that hard to muster as a min means reversion, but I really don't even see that. At any rate still going to continue to be very cautious to long side and also look to fade any rallies that produce a short setup.
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We took out June lows on NQ while I was sleeping. Thought it was unlikely that didn't happen first. RTY fell a little short, but got within ticks. Don't think it really changes much, just slightly increased chance now that we can rally a little higher and may hold a little longer than some previous days.
 
Seriously bulls really need to see something today or very soon, we've lost ES and NQ June lows and starting the process of regaining them, which is typically pretty bullish if nothing else at least short term. RTY has not completely satisfied the lows, so in theory could break that low on RTY, than have all indexes in line for a temporary bull move, but it got so close not sure it matters.

But this is our best setup and chance we've had for an actual rally now.
 
Momo indicators starting to break their trends, possibly one last reaction before another pop (sqqq):
 

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Wide Tailz said:
Momo indicators starting to break their trends, possibly one last reaction before another pop (sqqq):
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why short Qs? I sold 10 TQQQ puts $23 expiring next Friday, more than happy to pick up another 1k shares if assigned.
 
I like that trade, and we could be at the end of the bigger move but I've played the muppet all year trying to go long. If you can make money that way, I salute you!
 
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