Will start legging into longer term long position into at least EOY once we convincingly take out June lows and see some real capitulation action.
ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
I think we might have started seeing a bit of that today when VIX spiked above 30 for a brief time. I hope it is quick, but I expect it to be longer.
My naive analysis is that the FED’s been juicing the markets over the last decade, but they’re no longer doing so.
Yet everyone is expecting a rally and wants to buy the dip.
What am I missing?
Yet everyone is expecting a rally and wants to buy the dip.
What am I missing?
It looks like most of them have not experienced bear markets before.
I honestly think the Fed fell asleep at the wheel on inflation by pushing the "transitory" inflation crap as far as they could when they could still trade stocks privately. Only until they realized that they could no longer make money in the market did they decide that inflation was no longer transitory. And so now, we the people and the economy are going to suffer their crimes. Maximum employment was one of your primary objectives? Well, bitches, you go it, and have had it. Now you are reneging on it!
I feel like I am missing something as well. My thoughts are it is the US equity market, which there's a lot of parties big and small that have a vested interested in it going up. Plus the fact of all the recoveries we've had in the past, people both remember those and it also gives them a potential false sense of there being a floor in the US markets, that may be a lot lower this time than people are prepared for.
Also hear people mentioning there being no major financial crisis tipping point yet, but the thing is something can escalate or happen in a flash to bring us to a crisis level. Objectively things are already pretty bad and are set up to get worst. It's likely the housing market and mortgage industry in general still has a lot of pain to go through and that's just one micro example.
Technically we can lose June lows, than regain them to set up a rally. That's likely going to be short lived if that happens though and just temporarily delay the downside. As always will remain flexible and trade it day by day, but I would be completely shocked if the June lows are a long term bottom.
Perfect trend with regular pullbacks in the last hour.
I reckoned they would not want to print the weekly candle below 3700 being a round level.
Latest Fed Assets figure: 8,816,802,000
Which makes current pullback from alltime high -1.66% or less than half of July, 2020 drop of -3.46%. A long ways to go before the end of QT and a long ways to go before markets bottom.
I was active during '00 and '08. My thesis still has me going long soon into EOY.
I suspect a lot of people will be caught offsides when this thing reverses back towards ATH. Looking for a move back to test ATH and potentially exceed by a little - but then I intend to fade it. Looking for a range off the bottom of this current leg down and ATH to last for several years.
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