ES Journal - 2021/2022

[schizo]

I was active during '00 and '08. My thesis still has me going long soon into EOY.

I suspect a lot of people will be caught offsides when this thing reverses back towards ATH. Looking for a move back to test ATH and potentially exceed by a little - but then I intend to fade it. Looking for a range off the bottom of this current leg down and ATH to last for several years.

I agree there will be some pullbacks but back to ATH? I see that happening if and only if

1) Putin stops the war campaign
2) China backs off from their zero-Corona policy and relieve the supply bottleneck
3) inflation coming down to Fed's expected range of 2%.

The prospect of all 3 happening in unison is pretty slim IMO. But who knows, anything can happen.

BTW if you haven't already noticed, recession is just around the corner.

 

[Relentless]

I agree there will be some pullbacks but back to ATH? I see that happening if and only if

1) Putin stops the war campaign
2) China backs off from their zero-Corona policy and relieve the supply bottleneck
3) inflation coming down to Fed's expected range of 2%.

The prospect of all 3 happening in unison is pretty slim IMO. But who knows, anything can happen.

BTW if you haven't already noticed, recession is just around the corner.

We've been in recession. Current administration likes to pretend they can blur the lines.

 

[MacBookProHo]

We've been in recession.

Current administration likes to pretend they can blur

Who, officially, technically, cares if we're in a recession or not or politics....this forum place should be flourishing, instead, about talk....on how to Make those Million dollar moves in the market daily. So we can all buy homes in a year.

Turn on the Light, and let it Shine....shine, shine, shine,
And figure it all out,

 

[SunTrader]

We've been in recession. Current administration likes to pretend they can blur the lines.

All admins blur the the lines to their advantage, if they can.

Meanwhile I'm with schizo, too many things have to fall in place for the usual Xmas rally to happen this year.

 

[SunTrader]

Long hodlers are on this ride right now:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572630408327729152

 

[formikatrading]

I agree with @Relentless thesis - at least that a pretty good rally is coming.

I'm not worried about what is already known.

I agree there will be some pullbacks but back to ATH? I see that happening if and only if

1) Putin stops the war campaign
2) China backs off from their zero-Corona policy and relieve the supply bottleneck
3) inflation coming down to Fed's expected range of 2%.

The prospect of all 3 happening in unison is pretty slim IMO. But who knows, anything can happen.

BTW if you haven't already noticed, recession is just around the corner.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I agree with @Relentless thesis - at least that a pretty good rally is coming.

I'm not worried about what is already known.

I agree with @Relentless thesis - at least that a pretty good rally is coming.

I'm not worried about what is already known.

You’re always bullish, though. And were kind of dismissive to those in this thread who called BS on the prior rally.

The great reversal in 2020 was fueled by unprecedented money printing and even helicopter money as US citizens received a check in their mailbox.

That is not happening this year.

I don’t see why we can’t rally, though. It just seems unlikely that we’ll see ATHs anytime soon as long as the FED withdrew the punch bowl.

 

[formikatrading]

I don't think I'm always bullish. I admittedly mis-read some stuff prior to Jackson Hole.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Next week could be a biggie to the downside. I suppose it's all contigent on the FOMC come Wednesday.

3900 have been a good supply zone, but it broke by end of last week. I'm mainly looking to see if we can have a test and rejection of that zone or trade back above that level.

If 3900 fails and we have a down week next week, too, I don't see why we can't visit the June lows by end of next week.

Chart posted last Sunday:

This week was textbook TA:

 

[schizo]

I don't think I'm always bullish. I admittedly mis-read some stuff prior to Jackson Hole.

Oh, come on, we all know your DNA is stamped with "permabull".