ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Concinnity]

Triple witching day tomorrow. Now is the third time I said it.

Surely that would influence tomorrow's price action?

Am watching NQ, to me it has the most obvious setup. Until we at least start trading back above 09/07/2022 low than I am going to be extremely careful with intra-day longs and frankly depending on how it's trading may avoid long setups all together, until we actually candle close above on the Daily(with an up bar).

I can't imagine ES doesn't take out it's low as well sometime overnight or tomorrow. Not sure about the triple-witching am just going to trade it like any other day.

 

[schizo]

Caught something, could end up being a trout though haha

Looks like the bears might sneak up on ya in the ETH.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I can't imagine ES doesn't take out it's low as well sometime overnight or tomorrow. Not sure about the triple-witching am just going to trade it like any other day.

I think the basic theory is that market makers will want to have ES/SPX at the price that's most favourable for their books by expiration. I'm no expert on this, but that looks like 3900 - 3950 to me.

Of course, MMs can get f''ked, too. Which I imagine can put more fuel to the fire.

I'm just aware that it's a day where there's a lot going on behind the scenes and where it might be smart to be perhaps a tad more careful.

 

[Laissez Faire]

You need to grow your account, and skill and process and understanding, to the point where you are making $10,000/day on average, and you would be King of this place with all the salivaters looking confused and jealous. Then don't stop there, go to 20K, possibly more,

Yes. That's the whole purpose of trading. I want my account large enough that $1000K per day can be a slow day without overleveraging, but I have to grow my account with my own profits first and earn my stripes. So far since I started trading again I haven't had a single gross losing day yet. 2 days were ~ - $50 after costs.

$10K per day would be nice, too, but if I can conservatively make $1000 per day consistently I would be a very happy man.

As long as I'm making progress and staying in the game I'm happy.

 

[wiesman02]

Triple witching day tomorrow. Now is the third time I said it.

Surely that would influence tomorrow's price action?

depends how strong the witch's spell is. If you put the bones of young children in the pot, I hear it makes price go wild.

 

[schizo]

Looks like the bears might sneak up on ya in the ETH.

View attachment 295191

Dude, we're already tanking in the AH. Down 30 points in the first 5 minutes and close to retesting this month's low.

 

[Concinnity]

Yeah, it's no joke.... honestly not good at all. We likely see 3300-3500 range eventually and maybe even 3110-3270 ish range. If we do indeed eventually go that low and the last range doesn't hold, than things could get pretty serious unfortunately.

I know I keep beating a dead horse but this has 2008 written all over it.

 

[schizo]

Yeah, it's no joke.... honestly not good at all. We likely see 3300-3500 range eventually and maybe even 3110-3270 ish range. If we do indeed eventually go that low and the last range doesn't hold, than things could get pretty serious unfortunately.

I know I keep beating a dead horse but this has 2008 written all over it.

If there's one thing I've learned throughout my entire career is that government will eventually step in and prop up the market at all costs and you never want to bet against the government.

Anyway, I expect to see 3800 for tomorrow

 

[Overnight]

...government will eventually step in and prop up the market at all costs...

That WILL NOT happen this cycle.

 

[Concinnity]

If there's one thing I've learned throughout my entire career is that government will eventually step in and prop up the market at all costs and you never want to bet against the government.

Anyway, I expect to see 3800 for tomorrow

That is certainly true, but just to look at both sides equally, we also don't know when that would be. Which yes goes to your point. At the same time the other side is look how bad 2008 got before they stepped in. I am not sure how it works exactly, but I imagine they still want to step in at value added levels, which means I'd imagine at least 3400-3500 before that happened.