ES Journal - 2021/2022

[wiesman02]

Yeah, it's no joke.... honestly not good at all. We likely see 3300-3500 range eventually and maybe even 3110-3270 ish range. If we do indeed eventually go that low and the last range doesn't hold, than things could get pretty serious unfortunately.

I know I keep beating a dead horse but this has 2008 written all over it.

people think that b/c gas and oil go down, inflation will go down. Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way. When inflation gets a grip on your economy, it slowly grabs a hold of every industry. it starts with supply constrained areas, and the last to get hit are businesses without supply chain issues or not heavily reliant on food or energy. After that, it circles back again.

The fed has been slow to act, and its very likely they bring the economy down to its knees ever so slowly

 

[Overnight]

That is certainly true, but just to look at both sides equally, we also don't know when that would be. Which yes goes to your point. At the same time the other side is look how bad 2008 got before they stepped in. I am not sure how it works exactly, but I imagine they still want to step in at value added levels, which means I'd imagine at least 3400-3500 before that happened.

There is no bottom only ZUUL!

 

[schizo]

That is certainly true, but just to look at both sides equally, we also don't know when that would be. Which yes goes to your point. At the same time the other side is look how bad 2008 got before they stepped in. I am not sure how it works exactly, but I imagine they still want to step in at value added levels, which means I'd imagine at least 3400-3500 before that happened.

For S&P, that appears to be at around the 50% retracement level, give and take, which would put us at 2737. Of course, it's all speculation on my part so take it with a grain of salt.

 

[Overnight]

For S&P, that appears to be at around the 50% retracement level, give and take, which would put us at 2737. Of course, it's all speculation on my part so take it with a grain of salt.

View attachment 295197

That's a big-ass wave/retrace. I pray that you be wrong for the sake of everyone's 401Ks.

 

[schizo]

people think that b/c gas and oil go down, inflation will go down. Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way. When inflation gets a grip on your economy, it slowly grabs a hold of every industry. it starts with supply constrained areas, and the last to get hit are businesses without supply chain issues or not heavily reliant on food or energy. After that, it circles back again.

The fed has been slow to act, and its very likely they bring the economy down to its knees ever so slowly

As somebody who lived through the Volcker-induced recession (or rather stagflation, to be precise) in the late 70s, I can tell you it was the worst of all recessions I've experienced in my lifetime. And I was only a kid. But I remember massive unemployment, factories shutting down all around us, dark homes at night, and yet the damn prices wouldn't come down.

But, realistically, I don't think politicians and economists are that dumb to repeat the same mistake. Or are they? We'll just have to wait and see.

 

[schizo]

That's a big-ass wave/retrace. I pray that you be wrong for the sake of everyone's 401Ks.

It's not too unrealistic, considering that it previously tanked 52% in 2000 and 58% in 2008. Don't be a puss.

 

[Overnight]

It's not too unrealistic, considering that it previously tanked 52% in 2000 and 58% in 2008. Don't be a puss.

I am a puss because I don't want to see everyone's 401Ks lose 50% of value? You commie bastud! *shakes fist in the air*

 

[Concinnity]

NQ is starting to try and trade below this 11906-11912 ish area that's been holding up literally all night. Think if we get below can flush, but if not going to close my short soon. Don't want to miss out on a dump at same time, not worth staying up all night and being tired for tomorrow for potentially nothing, when there is a higher probability of action tomorrow.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Headed out shortly to Sydney. Talk in a week or so. Weekly uptrend may be negated tomorrow. We'll see. When I drilled down to shorter term charts, I did not find an ideal place to get long using the weekly as the overall guide. ---- Longer term monthly chart remains down down down. This is The Big One.

 

[Concinnity]

Headed out shortly to Sydney. Talk in a week or so. Weekly uptrend may be negated tomorrow. We'll see. When I drilled down to shorter term charts, I did not find an ideal place to get long using the weekly as the overall guide. ---- Longer term monthly chart remains down down down. This is The Big One.

Nice job on avoiding bull trap, yeah I figured you may not find an entry like we discussed, makes sense. Let's see what tomorrow brings.