ES Journal - 2021/2022

Concinnity said:
Common setup going to be watching out for in the next couple of days / week is I think the fairly obvious one, which is for some of this move to be faded. Retesting the relative lows so many times, make's it a little more complicated for me though. If we had just shot right up to this level without all the retest, it would be a lot more straight forward clear fade.

Another reason I think I am just going to watch Sunday night action for more clues and wait until Monday before getting too aggressive is that we currently still have bullish divergence on the Daily and this is the Third test of ES Daily 2nd resistance (which generally doesn't tend to hold as well). More often than not in this scenario we would take out the relative highs on ES 4577.50 at least and potentially move to ES Weekly 2nd resistance at 4484. Before we move too much lower.

That's my plans and 2 cents. Hope everyone enjoys the rest of their weekend.
More...


So far third ES hit of Daily resistance is not holding as well per normal. Let's see if we can go get 4484 ES weekly resistance.
 
Well i got trapped and baited in on that and took a loss. still not looking great down here on NQ either. I am long again here at 14244 may lose on this as well, but going to try to give it more time.
 
Got flat on that move up, up slightly now and flipped short 14288 going to stop posting, since seems everybody else is busy trading too. Good luck.
 
Today's RTH session filled the gap from the 16th of February. Not a surprise that we saw a range bound consolidation today following last week's 4-day rally of the lows.

We may see a range bound week, but barring any negative news during the week odds seem to favour a a close above 4450 by end of week.
 
Overnight said:
It's at 4450 now! So you see a flat week then.
More...

I don’t hold a strong view as I believe the markets can quickly reverse, too, in this climate. Above 4450 is simply the minimum to ensure a positive week which seems most likely from here.

I posted this yesterday:

This week closed up 6.14 % on ES.

The last 8 times that happened (also accounting for the market being down from the top) we saw a positive net change the following week 6 out of 8 or 75 % if you like percentages. With the largest net change being + 4.17%.

2 of the weeks in the sample saw a sharp reversal closing down approximately 5-7 %, so definitely possible we'll see a reversal, but odds seems to favour a range bound green week.

The market appears to be very news sensitive at the moment, so I'll say that's what will be the major influence. Absence of bad news or even positive news will drive this market higher for sure.
More...
 
The ISEE index did see a call explosion today, fwiw:
77C645A0-98CF-4F5C-8275-CC47A6694E35.jpeg

E5EE7610-88EF-4E23-BD23-5DB94E62DF99.jpeg
 
vanzandt said:
btfd
More...
Gotta zorch, so I can't keep an eye on this one for ya'll as it's currently wrong.
But I still think it's gonna go up.
But don't be greedy though either way.
Keep em small, and take the $'s when you see fit.

A vix that lived above 30 for 16 trading days, and has suddenly dropped to 23 in the matter of 3 or 4 sessions, uh-uh.... all may be well, but odds are that's not the case. At least not with Putin still rattling around.
Let's see a vix below 17-18 for 16 trading days, until then trade what ya see I guess.
4449>>> :thumbsup:
4444.25 stop
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top