ES Journal - 2021/2022

damn, a freaking fortune to be made today, just have to kick taking my singles though. If I size up for a home run and wrong, just too much damage on account size i trade.


Looks more clear though now like we may get the 4464-4484 move, so back to take any long setups I see now.
 
This post is for accountability of the last analysis I made regarding a breakout.
With 2 closes above trendline, a breakout did occur.

My argument of no breakout with declining volume did not hold true, although, at this point the breakout after 2.5 days is barely 1%... very weak.

While I "missed" the breakout on the Ugly ES Daily, I have gone short 2 MES @ 4429 with a money stop of under $500. 4471.75 to be exact. There is no hard target. Further, this trade will be closed before end of day. For me, it is a Ron Popeil trade... set it and forget it. Risk is defined. Even if a loss, impact would be negligible.

Good trading to all.

And now back to my regularly scheduled trading.
 
tiddlywinks said:
My argument of no breakout with declining volume did not hold true, although, at this point the breakout after 2.5 days is barely 1%... very weak.
More...

So, volume does not always lead price...?

I'm not sure how reliable these type of patterns are, but I couldn't help notice earlier this week how especially the weekly chart on ES/SPX looked like one large bull flag.

If one should trade what one sees or recognizes and not what one thinks (with everything that's going on in the world ATM), this does look bullish.

upload_2022-3-18_19-46-1.png
 
FWIW, I don't make predictions without hard data, so this is just a cursory look at the chart. I've no idea based on that alone.

It would be a surprise to me if this get legs, but then again, this bull market have surprised us more than once over these last few years...
 
I am actually getting aggressive here long:

#1 We're coming off a Daily and Weekly accumulation zone.

#2 We're above weekly ES resistance

#3 Both the Daily and Weekly setup not only hit bare bones targets but exceeded them (showing bulls are more active than most would expect).

#4 The pull back / accumulation area I posted from a larger intra-day chart last night held perfectly, went right to the level than bounced hard. This hasn't happened in like this in weeks.


Also, the micro price action last few days has the look of baiting in shorts. Lastly we're going into Friday and some large charts now have solid momentum. Perfect scenario to squeeze shorts here.


So still expecting 4464-4484 ES to be hit. Looking for it to be hit today, but of course I can't control that. But going to lean on this high probability setup and squeeze as much as I can from it.
 
Concinnity said:
I am actually getting aggressive here long:

#1 We're coming off a Daily and Weekly accumulation zone.

#2 We're above weekly ES resistance

#3 Both the Daily and Weekly setup not only hit bare bones targets but exceeded them (showing bulls are more active than most would expect).

#4 The pull back / accumulation area I posted from a larger intra-day chart last night held perfectly, went right to the level than bounced hard. This hasn't happened in like this in weeks.


Also, the micro price action last few days has the look of baiting in shorts. Lastly we're going into Friday and some large charts now have solid momentum. Perfect scenario to squeeze shorts here.


So still expecting 4464-4484 ES to be hit. Looking for it to be hit today, but of course I can't control that. But going to lean on this high probability setup and squeeze as much as I can from it.
More...



Flat my last MNQ here at 14403.
 
Concinnity said:
I am actually getting aggressive here long:

#1 We're coming off a Daily and Weekly accumulation zone.

#2 We're above weekly ES resistance

#3 Both the Daily and Weekly setup not only hit bare bones targets but exceeded them (showing bulls are more active than most would expect).

#4 The pull back / accumulation area I posted from a larger intra-day chart last night held perfectly, went right to the level than bounced hard. This hasn't happened in like this in weeks.


Also, the micro price action last few days has the look of baiting in shorts. Lastly we're going into Friday and some large charts now have solid momentum. Perfect scenario to squeeze shorts here.


So still expecting 4464-4484 ES to be hit. Looking for it to be hit today, but of course I can't control that. But going to lean on this high probability setup and squeeze as much as I can from it.
More...



4464 accomplished. Failed to hold for full move, but caught a good portion.
 
Laissez Faire said:
So, volume does not always lead price...?
More...

DO NOT put words in my mouth. I did NOT say that.

Volume leads price.

On the Daily, the last 3 days rally, including today, is on decreasing volume. That immediately tells me this entire rally is a retrace, not a reversal, not yet anyway. There hasn't been a breakout because the trendlines are wrong! While visually the channel looks correct, there is a "mistake".

And just to point it out... even with the still to be located error, the channel as is, has been a big money-maker. It is one the greatest things about JH... On fast charts, the system is self-correcting. On slower charts, such as the daily, errors can be difficult to spot, but volume does not lie and volume leads price.
 
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