ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Laissez Faire]

Yeah. Today's afternoon session was hard.

Shorts being carried out in body bags after these last 3 days. + 300 points off the Low last Monday.

I'm no expert on higher time frames (and not on lower either for that matter), but I think 12.23 % down on SPX may have been it and that this correction may be over. At least that's my view until I see any proof otherwise.

 

[Concinnity]

We are nearing the notorious X and had a 3 day rally. End of the week could be interesting from the shortside

I still like the probability of NQ retesting the 15605-15987 area. That's what often happens after we get a buy signal, which I got two on ES Daily 01/27/2022 and one on NQ 01/28/2022.

So, far market is acting a lot more normal now. Buy signal, than trade above my Daily EMA's now candle closing above them. Feel pretty good about there being some upside left. At least to ES 4580 ish and NQ 15485 ish, even if we don't make it fully back to NQ distribution zone (or scene of the crime, however you want to describe it).

 

[c1rcle]

I still like the probability of NQ retesting the 15605-15987 area. That's what often happens after we get a buy signal, which I got two on ES Daily 01/27/2022 and one on NQ 01/28/2022.

So, far market is acting a lot more normal now. Buy signal, than trade above my Daily EMA's now candle closing above them. Feel pretty good about there being some upside left. At least to ES 4580 ish and NQ 15485 ish, even if we don't make it fully back to NQ distribution zone (or scene of the crime, however you want to describe it).

Its an interesting area. The SPX is very close to the 24 EMA and also the September high. I doubt it would happen, but if the Jan lows get broken, the chart looks like a giant head and shoulders.

 

[NoahA]

I'm no expert on higher time frames (and not on lower either for that matter), but I think 12.23 % down on SPX may have been it and that this correction may be over. At least that's my view until I see any proof otherwise.

Totally agree, but going long at these levels, with a potential test of roughly 4220 again which wouldn't invalidate the low, isn't the smartest trade either. Being right in the middle of the ATH and the Jan 24 low means that both longs and shorts will be fucked over if you're looking for a move to either extreme.

 

[Concinnity]

Totally agree, but going long at these levels, with a potential test of roughly 4220 again which wouldn't invalidate the low, isn't the smartest trade either. Being right in the middle of the ATH and the Jan 24 low means that both longs and shorts will be fucked over if you're looking for a move to either extreme.

True, but I just do the macro view along with benchmarks. Not necessarily saying take a position. I look at each day at start trading at 9:30am and if anything has drastically changed I'll adjust my bias or view.

But a good example is how once we started trading above my Daily EMA. I was mainly looking to the long side that day and it paid off huge. Just like today, was mainly looking for some forced short covering based on the larger charts still looking good. It worked out pretty well, although not as well as yesterday.

So, tomorrow if I come in and nothing major has changed on the Daily chart and the other charts look decent, than I will likely focus on finding good long setups.

That's personally how I do it.

 

[ElCubano]

Yeah. Today's afternoon session was hard.

Shorts being carried out in body bags after these last 3 days. + 300 points off the Low last Monday.

I'm no expert on higher time frames (and not on lower either for that matter), but I think 12.23 % down on SPX may have been it and that this correction may be over. At least that's my view until I see any proof otherwise.

I think we revisit that low before heading up again.

 

[wiesman02]

One more pop before the drop.

Only game in town, buy every dip is still wall streets favorite.

 

[Concinnity]

I still like the probability of NQ retesting the 15605-15987 area. That's what often happens after we get a buy signal, which I got two on ES Daily 01/27/2022 and one on NQ 01/28/2022.

So, far market is acting a lot more normal now. Buy signal, than trade above my Daily EMA's now candle closing above them. Feel pretty good about there being some upside left. At least to ES 4580 ish and NQ 15485 ish, even if we don't make it fully back to NQ distribution zone (or scene of the crime, however you want to describe it).

See? NQ already at 15080.00 and ES already at 4543.50 now. Basically only 1 maybe 2 day rally away from min targets.....

 

[Concinnity]

See? NQ already at 15080.00 and ES already at 4543.50 now. Basically only 1 maybe 2 day rally away from min targets.....

NQ 15134... ES 4554.00. It's just a game... I think you get the point now though. I am sure someone, somewhere will post some type of "news". But point is we were talking about the probability of higher, prior to any news... like I always say people with tons of money aren't "generally" selling or buying serious amounts of futures based on news.... they already position themselves prior to that.... final point is that's why you use benchmarks and other things to give you hints of how bigger people are positioned and use that to increase the probabilities of your trades.

 

[c1rcle]

NQ 15134... ES 4554.00. It's just a game... I think you get the point now though. I am sure someone, somewhere will post some type of "news". But point is we were talking about the probability of higher, prior to any news... like I always say people with tons of money aren't "generally" selling or buying serious amounts of futures based on news.... they already position themselves prior to that.... final point is that's why you use benchmarks and other things to give you hints of how bigger people are positioned and use that to increase the probabilities of your trades.

Well the news is probably just released to fit what the big players are doing. So if the market does start to go south again soon, there will be some well timed news ready to help allow the masses to feel slightly more comfortable.