ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Concinnity]

Well the news is probably just released to fit what the big players are doing. So if the market does start to go south again soon, there will be some well timed news ready to help allow the masses to feel slightly more comfortable.

Yeah, but point still stands the news doesn't really do you any good. You can't consistently make a career off of trading news (or very very few people can). You can make a career off of learning how markets work, price action, signals and etc that give you hints as to how bigger people are already likely positioned.

Than when the "news" "randomly" hits, you'll already be on the right side anyways. Just something I've noticed is rarely does news come out and the market ends up going in the complete opposite direction that the charts were positioned in. It certainly does happen, but not often and even some of the times it does happen, it's just a temporary move against to shake people out and than we return to the scheduled programing.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I think we revisit that low before heading up again.

That might very well happen.

The last time we had a 10 % correction (September 2020) it was pretty much smooth sailing once the LOD was in. That is - we went almost back up to the HOD before another leg lower making a higher low:

The last time prior to that (skipping the Covid plunge) was September 2018 and we had a 60 % retracement off the 10% level before a new plunge for a 20 % correction in total.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Totally agree, but going long at these levels, with a potential test of roughly 4220 again which wouldn't invalidate the low, isn't the smartest trade either. Being right in the middle of the ATH and the Jan 24 low means that both longs and shorts will be fucked over if you're looking for a move to either extreme.

I agree that it's not the best spot from here, although this looks fairly bullish to me from my POV. A lot can happen between here and Friday, though.

 

[tiddlywinks]

A lot can happen between here and Friday

With no intent of turning the discussion or the thread political, Fridays jobs numbers are expected to be terrible, and are already are in full spin mode... if one knows how to locate "news".

 

[c1rcle]

With no intent of turning the discussion or the thread political, Fridays jobs numbers are expected to be terrible, and are already are in full spin mode... if one knows how to locate "news".

Wouldn't "terrible" jobs numbers support the case for a long? Terrible jobs data might make people think that the Fed would be less likely to raise rates right?

 

[tiddlywinks]

Wouldn't "terrible" jobs numbers support the case for a long? Terrible jobs data might make people think that the Fed would be less likely to raise rates right?

 

[Overnight]

Wouldn't "terrible" jobs numbers support the case for a long? Terrible jobs data might make people think that the Fed would be less likely to raise rates right?

Exactly. It's turning into a "bad news is good news for the market" thing again.

 

[formikatrading]

Exactly. It's turning into a "bad news is good news for the market" thing again.

 

[Concinnity]

I also think people need a reason for the markets to go up or down, so they love the thought of being able to point to the latest news story as why the markets move. If you think about it, it basically removes all responsibility from the individual that thinks like that. Now they can feel good about missing the move or getting caught in the move "oh man no way I could of caught that move" or "oh yeah that's why my trade lost, it was that surprise news". That's much easier and feels better than accepting or working to figure out ways to be on the right side of trade and build a consistent risk management plan.

 

[vanzandt]

When I wrote the above, I had searched multiple years to find a finish similar to the last several months of 2021. I wanted to see a year end that was constantly making new highs right thru the end of December, and then how it transitioned into January.
Like our end to 2021.

Pull up a daily chart of QQQ for the timeframe Oct 1, 2015 to Jan 30, 2016
Look familiar up till today?
That's the one I based this call on.

"Mirror mirror on the wall"?


View attachment 275756

This is too funny.
I wanted to revisit 2 weeks after the last post regarding this.

This time I included the percent scales on both charts.
Check it out---- on the left side.
Pretty damn close.

These both go from 11/30 to 2/1 of their respective years.
I don't necessarily think it'll prognosticate February 2022, but so far, for the last 2 months at least, history would appear to be repeating lol.

So....

Here's the picture of QQQ from Jan 1 thru St. Patty's Day of 2016.
Who knows if the pattern will continue or not.
It'd be funny if it did though.
Beats me.

If it does, we're heading down this week.