I believe I've seen you reference SPY earlier.
Do you find that tracking SPY gives you information that helps you as an ES trader? Does the SPY lead at times?
Thank you.
ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
I believe I've seen you reference SPY earlier.
Do you find that tracking SPY gives you information that helps you as an ES trader? Does the SPY lead at times?
Thank you.
So, we have two consecutive weeks making lower lows where the first week came from an all time high.
Following such a pattern - 60 % of the following weeks saw new lows, but not by much and 80 % of the sample actually closed net positive by week end.
While last week could seem dramatic and volatility spiked, it's interesting to note that we only closed down 4,29 % from ATHs.
I have a hunch that we may continue to see some down side pressure, but I'll keep those statistics in mind along with general seasonality. A failure below this week's low on Monday and a rally back inside this week's range could be a very nice long entry for the week ahead, but do use a condom. Eh. Stop. The market will go where it wants to go...
Following such a pattern - 60 % of the following weeks saw new lows, but not by much and 80 % of the sample actually closed net positive by week end.
While last week could seem dramatic and volatility spiked, it's interesting to note that we only closed down 4,29 % from ATHs.
I have a hunch that we may continue to see some down side pressure, but I'll keep those statistics in mind along with general seasonality. A failure below this week's low on Monday and a rally back inside this week's range could be a very nice long entry for the week ahead, but do use a condom. Eh. Stop. The market will go where it wants to go...
So, looking only at Friday it was an Outside Day which opened above the prior day high, but closed inside the prior day range after making new lows.
I can't share all the specifics I look at, but let's just say that all 5 Mondays following such a day were what I'll call bullish days going higher and closing net positive. Either a failure below Friday's Low or a gap up and go from the Open. A larger gap down or continuation lower would negate this pattern, so shouldn't dip much below Friday's Low and reverse higher within the first 30 minutes.
Let's see how it plays out...
I can't share all the specifics I look at, but let's just say that all 5 Mondays following such a day were what I'll call bullish days going higher and closing net positive. Either a failure below Friday's Low or a gap up and go from the Open. A larger gap down or continuation lower would negate this pattern, so shouldn't dip much below Friday's Low and reverse higher within the first 30 minutes.
Let's see how it plays out...
That post was a heads up on price sitting on a channel.
Being that you are working with a longer timeframe in mind, I realize Now that this kind of stuff is inappropriate for posting in your journal in that it's not relevant in your time context. Trading is interesting enough without that.
Responding to your reply though I've posted what happened not on the 30minute chart but on the 5m chart an hour and a half after that 12:11 post to your journal. I don't trade the ES but your journal had me watching it a little over the last few days. Break a Leg!
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...t-right-here-baby.343012/page-15#post-5500136
Man, everyone knows that B1S2 welcomes most discussions in his journal. There is not much that is inappropriate here, lol! That's why each of his 2-year-long journals garner 1,223,277,1,2,999 views. I think your posts are relevant to the discussion.
Its always good to learn from people who have more experience yourself and yes it is a worthy cause, I give money to people in need all the time,
I looked at some of his tweets and can't even interpret them. At 7pm yesterday he posted "$es_z remain 15-20 handles RED; 6:55 PM EST!" Then just before midnight he posted "$es_z 10-15 handles RED; 11:55 PM EST!" Not sure what he's saying, since ES doesn't trade on Saturdays.
So, looking only at Friday it was an Outside Day which opened above the prior day high, but closed inside the prior day range after making new lows.
I can't share all the specifics I look at, but let's just say that all 5 Mondays following such a day were what I'll call bullish days going higher and closing net positive. Either a failure below Friday's Low or a gap up and go from the Open. A larger gap down or continuation lower would negate this pattern, so shouldn't dip much below Friday's Low and reverse higher within the first 30 minutes.
Let's see how it plays out...
excellent, thanks for these kinds of stats
You're welcome!
The odds for up on Monday seems very high based on this, but eventually some day comes which negates the pattern, so it's important to stay flexible, IMO. But interesting to observe how these kind of days don't typically have continuation lower the next day as I imagine a lot of people are expecting just that.
I've dissected this chart every which way and don't think there's any edge in trading this area for myself. Gonna wait and see who wins this battle. Either we get a zig zag pattern on the daily (down, up,down, up), or blood red and end of the year sell off is all but guaranteed. GL all