ES Journal - 2021/2022

[mervyn]

You're a big swinging dick. Apologies if you're actually a woman.

Is that your typical size? How do you experience moving that much size on ES? Any issues?

I am a small fish. it is liquid during the regular hours. 10 lot each trade, target 1-3 points, stop loss 15 points, hard stop at 1pm, 3-7 rt if I can really focus only on es screen. Just made back over 5k today, still in red from yesterday but feeling better. esp after I saw NVDA skyrocketed, bought 10 Jan-March 225 calls in September tech pullback, also lobed some meta Jan 2023 calls in the afternoon.

 

[Builder17]

Did you make the mistake of thinking too much?

Sometimes I feel it can be an advantage to simply be 'dumber' and think less. Here's where a pure trend follower might an advantage as he/she doesn't think in terms of too high or too low. Just follow the trend - up or down. Go flat if the market goes sideways.

As of today - S&P is up about 25% on the year. That's pretty good historically.

If we look all the way back to 1990 and to present date - the best year was 34,11 % in 1995. Next 31,01 % and then we go below 30 % for the rest.

If we only look back to the year 2000 - the best three years are 29,60 %, 28,88 % and 26,38 %.

What this means is that from a historical perspective - we're up quite bit on the year already and pushing historical records.

Let's say SPX does a really good year at 30%. That's 4882,75. Approx. 200 points higher from today.

Let's say SPX rivals the best year from 1995. That takes us to 5000 by year end. Approx. 320 points higher.

By no means a prediction, and I'm no economist, but from a historical perspective then it shows us that there may be a good deal of juice left on the upside still until year end.

Yeah definitely best to keep it simple and follow the momentum, the trend, and price. feels like last week i was getting chopped up long looking for the breakout. this week went short too early and kept that bias on while i knew this breakout was a possibility, then looked to other instruments (oil - clearly not the other indices) for fellow bear bias.
thanks for those stats, that is a good perspective on what is still possible.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I've got nothing to lean on here as most of my statistical biases are fulfilled at this point, so calling it an early weekend. We can see 4720/25 or we can fill this gap below. No strong bias for either.

Here is where a "dumb" trend follower might excel and simply follow this trend for as long/high as it goes - regardless of how "overbought/overextended" this market seems.

 

[chillibean]

well done team! Hold strong.

 

[Relentless]

You're a big swinging dick. Apologies if you're actually a woman.

Is that your typical size? How do you experience moving that much size on ES? Any issues?

I know a guy swinging 100. He gets filled fine.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I know a guy swinging 100. He gets filled fine.

All the time? No slippage?

I've had partial fills on limit orders with my measly 5 contracts, but usually it's not an issue.

 

[mervyn]

I know a guy swinging 100. He gets filled fine.

day trading 100 is difficult for retail, dom shows on average under 250 bid/ask each tick, not sure it will be filled instantaneously at once. but yes, the volume is there, if he has a good bot to execute trades.

 

[mervyn]

done for the day, average day. 65 points at the first 30 minutes of the open but shorted too early and gave back 30 points. number of short trades in the afternoon with 1 point target met. the chart has a clear direction but don't want to risk money on a Friday afternoon.

 

[Relentless]

All the time? No slippage?

I've had partial fills on limit orders with my measly 5 contracts, but usually it's not an issue.

Realistically everyone trading multiple contracts gets slippage at some point but yes - it is rare for him to get slippage. ES very liquid.

day trading 100 is difficult for retail, dom shows on average under 250 bid/ask each tick, not sure it will be filled instantaneously at once. but yes, the volume is there, if he has a good bot to execute trades.

He is the bot. Discretionary only.

 

[formikatrading]

I lightened up on my positions today -- I'm expecting the market to pull back at some point next week. Meanwhile, I'm long NUGT (gold miners) since Monday/Tuesday --- I think that has more to go to the upside.