ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
What happened?
FWIW - I got in and out of a few longs this morning and just got flattened on a trailing stop @ 63.25. My target was 65.25, but I didn't have the confidence today, so trailed a tigher stop behind a late entry.
Looks like there was even more juice on the table, but I feel it's hard to commit to the long side at this point. A healthy bull market should have some retracement, but this market just keeps going.
Looks like there was even more juice on the table, but I feel it's hard to commit to the long side at this point. A healthy bull market should have some retracement, but this market just keeps going.
For what it's worth - I find that it's important to take some time off after a larger than normal loss. Is this easy to do? Hell no. But that may be precisely why it's so important.
For myself, I have found that large losses compound themselves. My confidence is shaken and I'm more concerned about making back what I lost than I am with actual good trading.
I tried to warn two people about the same thing on this board, but both of them seemed to blow their accounts afterwards and not taking my advice to heart.
Marty Schwartz wrote about this in his book and even have a short essay about it. I've posted it multiple times on this board.
239 es contracts traded, not enough conviction to stay either long or short, too many long wicks, had to cut loss after rally money came in after 3pm. was doing lot of market orders to catch few ticks but didn't work out in my favor. anyway, i think i am done for the day, 30 contracts 6 points pocketed, right below 4670.
Did you make the mistake of thinking too much?
Sometimes I feel it can be an advantage to simply be 'dumber' and think less. Here's where a pure trend follower might an advantage as he/she doesn't think in terms of too high or too low. Just follow the trend - up or down. Go flat if the market goes sideways.
As of today - S&P is up about 25% on the year. That's pretty good historically.
If we look all the way back to 1990 and to present date - the best year was 34,11 % in 1995. Next 31,01 % and then we go below 30 % for the rest.
If we only look back to the year 2000 - the best three years are 29,60 %, 28,88 % and 26,38 %.
What this means is that from a historical perspective - we're up quite bit on the year already and pushing historical records.
Let's say SPX does a really good year at 30%. That's 4882,75. Approx. 200 points higher from today.
Let's say SPX rivals the best year from 1995. That takes us to 5000 by year end. Approx. 320 points higher.
By no means a prediction, and I'm no economist, but from a historical perspective then it shows us that there may be a good deal of juice left on the upside still until year end.
I looked Marty Schwartz up on Amazon. Is it "Pit Bull"?
Correct. It's been a while since I read it, but I did at least enjoy it quite a bit back in the day. Marty was a big S&P futures trader, but mostly pit trading, I think. I think he also said in a newer interview that he wouldn't be able to trade successfully in today's electronic markets. Many traders didn't make the transition from the floor to the screen.
Here's that essay I mentioned on the losing streak:
Half way through life and not close to being consistent
Previous reversion to mean “High-water” marks on ES daily chart project out to 4700 by the end of next week. This is a moving target as the “Mean” is in a strong uptrend. Vix is currently in reversion to mean territory on a swing trade timeframe. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, of course.
Edit: Just noticed VIX just hit an intraday high.
You're a big swinging dick.
Apologies if you're actually a woman. Is that your typical size? How do you experience moving that much size on ES? Any issues?