ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Smart here to just play the range we have.
Is it possible we put in another quick ATH before going lower? Sure. I think instead we stay in this consolidative phase before taking a second leg lower. Shake out the excess.
Should setup well for a run into year end or Q1 ' 22.
Just imho of course
Is it possible we put in another quick ATH before going lower? Sure. I think instead we stay in this consolidative phase before taking a second leg lower. Shake out the excess.
Should setup well for a run into year end or Q1 ' 22.
Just imho of course
NQ broke last week's low and leading lower. ES lagging behind a bit, but looking heavy from here.
Staying the short course here... typical short squeeze on Friday to provide us shorts with a little anxiety & something to think about over the weekend
... Patiently awaiting the heavy- heavy slide south here, this week!!
ES 4250ish is half way back for 2021 gains. 4000ish is a full retracement and gap fill on RTH daily. Transportation numbers, backorders, and US employment data are very strong on pent up demand related to the pandemic. Supply chain issues will work themselves out over time, especially as automation in material handling and transportation continues to accelerate.
I believe the market can handle a little tapering because what else is there to invest in? Corporate earnings will accelerate to surprising levels and our current economic cycle has a lot of life left, in my estimation.
Our politicians will reach an agreement on the budget soon, like they always have, i.e, “I’ll call your 300 lobbyists and raise you 500 more”!
China’s financial stress has reached serious levels as has been predicted for years, and this represents a significant, durable risk. However, I would imagine a measured approach by China’s leaders will allow them to grow out of their current situation over time. China-Taiwan is another short to intermediate term worry of course, but any rash action by China will only galvanize competing countries into becoming strong allies creating more coordinated production and trade between them.
My outlook assumes rational behavior among world leaders, which some may consider to be a lot to ask.
Going forward, I see emerging markets, including China at some point, and monetary hedges outperforming the US equity markets in spite of strong US corporate performance for the simple reason that investment funds will increasingly flow to those smaller markets and this will create a greater impact on their market performance than here.
In conclusion, I see the US equities markets hitting all time highs in Q1 of 2022, if not sooner.
Congress is on vacation. Pelosi kicked the can to Halloween.
Wall Street hates the unknowns, but it loves a near term no news environment.
That's what we have at the moment.
Spooz.... i think you're wrong brother.... as I wrote... we're heading north. Near term at least.
4294
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Long above 4310 from here (today). Waiting first for a test of 4290 if not.
That pop came a bit too soon/fast, so better use a fairly tight stop.
Lock in 3 points now for beer money / dinner.
Ride it to 40/50 if we clear 20 on this leg up.
You're welcome.
