ES Journal - 2021/2022

See that run into 4PM close on the naz and spy?
Some days it means something, some days it doesn't.
Today it did.

Spooz may be right, and I think he is....
....but the "noise" points north tomorrow.
4365
 
vanzandt said:
See that run into 4PM close on the naz and spy?
Some days it means something, some days it doesn't.
Today it did.

Spooz may be right, and I think he is....
....but the "noise" points north tomorrow.
4365
More...

I keep smelling a repeat of Q4 2018. IIRC, it started in a similar thrashing up-and-down week, which led to a 3 month up-and-down thrash. Then, just before X-Mas, Trump sent a simple tweet. "Looks like a good time to buy stocks."

And we all know what happened in January 2019...ZOOM!

This time we don't have him. Now we have a looming debt-ceiling thing, and Powell possibly going away early next year. The markets hate uncertainty, as you well know.
 
4370!!!! Another 100 pt off the lows runs . It’s all a guess which way we go. There’s no doubt short interest is to Pluto with so much negativity and sideways action the last 6 weeks.
 
So did a deep dive after hours -- I believe we put in the intermediate term low. I think long and strong is the way to be for next several weeks. The one thing I have maintained is that there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the market right now - meaning there is no reason to fear a major market melt down.
 
I think the line in the sand is pretty much that swing high at 9/27. Below we continue to range / head lower yet before on to new ATH. Strong bars into and over we go right back to ATH - but unlikely we get much higher than the prior ATH regardless before heading lower again.

That's how I'm seeing it anyway. People are getting bullish with the last two sessions but I actually have us hitting top of the channel on Daily (and getting rejected as we speak). Lets see if the momentum of the last two days can carry through. I wouldnt be surprised in the least if we started to head back down somewhere near this area.
 
I think everything depends on the debt ceiling which most likely will be raised for the 100th time. I believe that's what's happening now, i.e., the rumor is bought...

When that's taken care of it's business as usual with free money and zero risk $$$. :)

What would surprise me is if the debt ceiling is taken care of and the market tanks. I know nothing, so this is purely speculation on my part.
 
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