ES Journal - 2021/2022

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What will happen in the fourth week of Feb-21?
 
Funny you mention October because there is tendency for seasonal underperformance in September/October. Not every time of course.

We'll find out soon enough.
 
Truth be told, I shorted before finding that pattern. But it hasn't dampened my enthusiasm. It feels toppy. If not this week, then very soon I think we're heading a lot lower.
 
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benwm said:
Truth be told, I shorted before finding that pattern. But it hasn't dampened my enthusiasm. It feels toppy. If not this week, then very soon I think we're heading a lot lower.
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Well sure...Just through the market mechanics we've been seeing over the past 3 years, we are due for a correction now.

But there is always a push-pull in it, and we have the general "toppyness", measured against the re-opening story. That PPI number this week really tweaked some folks, and it shows in Bond yields. Overheating when we all come out to play again? I don't see it that way. But that is logic, and the market ain't logical.

Where's Yellen's yellin'!
 
Rising bond yields / further curve steepening could definitely end the party, especially if oil prices accelerate higher. Another is some surprise legislation in response to the Gamestop story. I can't remember which one, but I read that hiking margins triggered one crash.

Although it doesn't take much to prick a bubble. It was hard to pinpoint a single factor that caused 1987. The best I could find was Treasury Secretary James Baker having a trade dispute with Germany.
 
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