ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Buy1Sell2]

would seem like only a large rally into the close would be needed to undo what you're seeing, correct?

yes--certainly

 

[Buy1Sell2]

How do you define longer term downtrend? We made all time highs only a few days ago. Is your time horizon only a few days?

timeframe is weeks to 6 months.

 

[benwm]

timeframe is weeks to 6 months.

Interesting .. so you have an unconventional way of defining trend ..

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Interesting .. so you have an unconventional way of defining trend ..

I try to define it in advance. When I say we are in downtrend , I typically mean that I think shorts have a better chance of success. I'm generally early.

 

[benwm]

I try to define it in advance. When I say we are in downtrend , I typically mean that I think shorts have a better chance of success. I'm generally early.

Ok, I'll ask this question another way. How many days of data do you use to define trend? A few days or do you utilise information going back weeks or months?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Ok, I'll ask this question another way. How many days of data do you use to define trend? A few days or do you utilise information going back weeks or months?

I typically use weekly charts to define longer term trend. To me, this chart looks like downtrend.

 

[Gregpl6]

Rising bond yields / further curve steepening could definitely end the party, especially if oil prices accelerate higher. Another is some surprise legislation in response to the Gamestop story. I can't remember which one, but I read that hiking margins triggered one crash.

Although it doesn't take much to prick a bubble. It was hard to pinpoint a single factor that caused 1987. The best I could find was Treasury Secretary James Baker having a trade dispute with Germany.

1987 crash caused by Robert Prechter when he put out a sell signal.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

1987 crash caused by Robert Prechter when he put out a sell signal.

False. The 87 crash happened when James Baker made comments over the weekend that they were going to "let the dollar go"

 

[Gregpl6]

False. The 87 crash happened when James Baker made comments over the weekend that they were going to "let the dollar go"

That was a joke, but it was funny during that time how he could move markets. Barron's called
him the 2nd most powerful person in country.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Key levels here @ 78/80.

Bullish above.