ES Journal - 2021/2022

Concinnity said:
TS user with Kase bar's? Nice. That's mainly what I use to trade NQ with. It's surprising how few people use range bar's, much less know or use Kase bar's. They're very flexible though and work very well with my setups.
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Kase started out with TradeStation years agoooo - maybe even before dotcom blowup.
 
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Concinnity said:
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For me I liked the short more given it's more in line with the larger charts. But given the fact that June lows have not been taking out and we see day after day shorts being squeezed off the lows, there's certainly long setups to be had as well obviously. To each his own more than one way to trade.
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Don't know why you think that?

Who would be holding short from June lows, after the yuuge retracement we had to August 46th high?
 
SunTrader said:
Don't know why you think that?

Who would be holding short from June lows, after the yuuge retracement we had to August 46th high?
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It's what I explained earlier on a more micro scale: about how often times intra-day action when we're coming to make a new low, people see the low break coming and look to short into the down momentum to catch a piece of the action, but it causes a temporary imbalance, which gets cleared on the move back up and than at that point we go and break the low.

That's what has been happening the last 4 trading days just on a more macro scale. We move really close to the June lows people jump in looking for the break, than we reverse and squeeze. Rinse and repeat until there's enough people looking long, than we can finally break the lows.

Of course there's no way I can prove this is exactly what is happening, but this has been the basis macro view for how I've been trading this and why I've been shorting pops. Not that I want to be wrong conceptually, but in the end this pattern I am describing plays out often and works very well for me. So, if I am wrong on what is actually taking place so be it.
 
Concinnity said:
It's what I explained earlier on a more micro scale: about how often times intra-day action when we're coming to make a new low,....
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Ok I misunderstood what you were saying in reference to June lows.

New weak shorts entered recently including today, not weak shorts that were entered back then.
 
schizo said:
When in doubt, stay on the sideline. That itself is a good defensive strategy.
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Yes. That alone can make or break a trader. I'm a bit too triggerhappy. Others can sit an entire session without pulling the trigger.

FWIW, my statistical model gives good odds for a move higher tomorrow following this 2-day pattern. I'm a bit wary of putting too much faith in it right now as the market's are a bit unhinged, IMO. But it's certainly possible the bear will take a breather for a few days before continuing lower (which I think will happen sooner than later).
 
Laissez Faire said:
FWIW, my statistical model gives good odds for a move higher tomorrow following this 2-day pattern. I'm a bit wary of putting too much faith in it right now as the market's are a bit unhinged, IMO. But it's certainly possible the bear will take a breather for a few days before continuing lower (which I think will happen sooner than later).
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Have you ever thought of automating your trades? It would go well with your statistical model.
 
schizo said:
Have you ever thought of automating your trades? It would go well with your statistical model.
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I've considered it for sure, but I think my "statistical model" have a long way to go before it can be automated. It's too complex with too many variables. The data collection and everything else is automated of course, but trades are made by my own discretion based on the statistical analysis. I don't always use it either, but yesterday it was what convinced me the market would most likely stall at 90. So, it did the job.

I have a programmer working with me on it now, but progress is very slow and I have low expectations.
 
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