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ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
I can't believe you have to keep explaining yourself to them. It's like obvious stuff.
I've never been called "them".
OK.
I forget this is ET... only large size and large reward per trade matters.
Since this is a range-bound and two-sided market, I think that 3690 level can get sold hard or will be tough to get by.
As anticipated. Very common pattern on a range bound day and pretty much the same pattern as last Thursday.
Disclaimer: I did not trade the reversal off 90. Shorting a market rallying into resistance is still the hardest trade for me to take. I can fade a drop, but not so easily a pop.
Tomorrow can get bloody IMO. June low is only like 30 points below. Easily doable in the sneaky hour of the night.
Doing any trades in the overnight market?
I did a bit last week and also a trade on Sunday's Open. Most of the time I think the action is more pleasant. Better trends and less two-sided action. Seems like the market often gets stuck in RTH playing ping-pong, while you're getting larger and cleanere moves overnight.
$SPX LOD was 3644.76SPX lowest was 3636.87, we have not breached that number on my chart. Why CNBC running a headline? I am very perplexed today.
On a good sign, CCI is pointing up on daily, perhaps June low is a support level.
8.25 + 8.25 + 8 pts.
I'm happy. Sixty something percent of total daily range a day, week after week after week, is so far out there IMO it's not even a debate.
If you are happy, that's all that matters.
But trading is not like, ummm, selling cars with a 15% closing ratio. Although, those people are probably happy too.
I forget this is ET... only large size and large reward per trade matters.
Are you being serious? What you're doing right here is a strawman argument.
If you, Tiddly, want to track your own performance and are still netting the same when trading 10 contracts as you were when you were trading 1 contract you're not a better trader. You're just trading 10 times bigger.
If you want an objective measure of your performance utilizing the same methodology you need to track points per contract.
Anyone who's making money in this market in whichever way gets my respect. I never said anything else.
Right, trading is about a closing ratio varying to a certain degree. Some days big, some not.If you are happy, that's all that matters.
But trading is not like, ummm, selling cars with a 15% closing ratio. Although, those people are probably happy too.
Aaron Judge doesn't hit a home run every at bat. It just like it sometimes.
I've never been called "them".
OK.
I forget this is ET... only large size and large reward per trade matters.
I trade mostly MNQ, QQQ and TQQQ. Sometimes I will trade NQ but rarely. Point is I don't necessarily care about size, but it is relevant how someone produced the gains. That's literally all he wanted to know, because again it is relevant to skill level and risk involved.
To use an extreme example :
Trader A: Trades 1 ES lot on multiple setups and brings in net 30 points.
Trader B: Trades 30 lots on one setup and brings in net 30 points on one trade.
Clearly what Trader A is doing is way more impressive. Because Trader B captured essentially 1 ES point. Trader A captured 30 ES points of market movement. He wants to know what is the person using to produce the gains.
What is controversial about this? or how is this not relevant?
All correct of course, but the way I'd like to think of it is like this. If my strategy requires holding for big moves, this might be something that I'm not able to accomplish on many days. The market after all only offers what it offers. 30, 40 or 50 point winners are great, but these require great entries, lots of patience, and a volatile market.The whole point about tracking points captured as a % of the daily range is to give an idea of how much of the daily offer you’re able to capture, i.e., skill.
Trader A nets a total of 50 points on a 25 point daily range trading one contract, i.e., 50 points per contract.
Trader B nets a total of 50 points on the same day trading 50 contracts, i.e, 1 point per contract.
Obviously, a big difference.
A 10 point move on the other hand you can expect practically every single day. Its also more probable to get a 10 point winner vs. a 50 point winner. Trying for 10 points is also large enough that it doesn't leave you so exposed to predatory algos , like if you're only going for 1 or 2 points. (although they can of course move the market much more than 10 points sometimes)
So I do think there is a sweet spot, which I guess is very individual. For me, I'd like to settle on a type of trade that sets up many times in just one hour. A 50 point move might not set up properly during the first hour of the market open, or when you are watching live. A 10 point move though sets up multiple times in just the first hour or 30 mins.
Furthermore, with a 10 point move, there will naturally be a higher win rate than for a 50 point trade. And once again, there is a sweet spot for what each of us finds acceptable. A higher win rate on a smaller R:R might be better overall than a very nice 1:5 trade but on a much lower win rate.
And then putting all this together, I want the type of trade that is easy to leverage up. If I can only put on several 50 point trades in a week, it might be difficult to start adding on contracts. But if I'm used to making 5-10 trades a day with a 50% win rate, scaling up my size might seem easier since the trade is over soon, regardless of the outcome, and if I'm not married to any one trade, its easier to just focus on your system, which should make it easier to add on size as the account grows. If you're targeting a much larger win, detachment from the trade might get more difficult.