ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Just given the action and all the factors I think the probability of having a limit down day on NQ soon has increased by a good amount. So personally I am looking out for that.
Not saying it isn't obvious but if we take out NQ October lows on momentum that would be a prime setup for limit down. 8716-9325 on NQ is untested and that is likely a magnet for price if the setup does occur. Would put ES about 3115.75-3272.25. Whether we do it now or get another rally up first either way it's very high probability we trade at least down to those prices prior to any type of long term bottom.
NQ has been dragging ES down intra-day quite often. ES holds up a lot better, while NQ makes new relative lows, but eventually ES follows and also makes new relative lows ES is 252 points away from it's October lows, NQ is only 356. So huge divergence and if NQ does break it's weekly lows I would suspect that the micro trend continues into a more macro one and will drag ES down.
Doesn't really help much with intra-day trading, just posting some things I've been noticing and some thoughts for what it's worth.
Not saying it isn't obvious but if we take out NQ October lows on momentum that would be a prime setup for limit down. 8716-9325 on NQ is untested and that is likely a magnet for price if the setup does occur. Would put ES about 3115.75-3272.25. Whether we do it now or get another rally up first either way it's very high probability we trade at least down to those prices prior to any type of long term bottom.
NQ has been dragging ES down intra-day quite often. ES holds up a lot better, while NQ makes new relative lows, but eventually ES follows and also makes new relative lows ES is 252 points away from it's October lows, NQ is only 356. So huge divergence and if NQ does break it's weekly lows I would suspect that the micro trend continues into a more macro one and will drag ES down.
Doesn't really help much with intra-day trading, just posting some things I've been noticing and some thoughts for what it's worth.
I think there are other choices than those two, but for most that's the two choices on the table.
What do you trade with such a wide spread?
Isn't that your style as well?
Clearly you went long because you assumed price would go higher from your entry point. Why would you have price go 20 points against you when you were present at the computer and could have stopped it at B/E?
If not at the computer it's a different matter, but even then, one can adjust the stop as price moves favourably on a daily basis.
I wouldn't say I need to micro-manage every tick, though. I just make sure to eliminate risk as soon as I can. The target is usually unchanged, but I will make sure I trail if I'm present.
I am spreadbetting the NQ futures. But you have made me think a little bit now, so thank you.
The reason why my spread is so wide is because I choose a broker who allows me to hold over night without fees. This works well as I have gotten used to holding for a few days sometimes. However, I could choose another broker with minimal spreads and go for a zero loss making strategy. I like the idea of it. However I would never be able to hold over night.
I wasn't even aware of the move in Bitcoin prior to making this post, but after seeing bitcoin losing like 25% in 3 days is another reason to add to the list to be on the look out for limit down.
Or how about AMZN is the first company to ever lose $1 Trillion (with a T) in market cap according to Bloomberg this morning.
- Amazon loses $1 trillion in market value
Kind of an expected move, but now question is do we double leg up here, looks like it's possible.