As always, it will probably reverse once they stop me out.
Oh, the f''ckers been doing that with me all day...
ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Oh, the f''ckers been doing that with me all day...
Flip short 62
SL 72
14 point counter-move starting at 13:58. I'm sure many including me interpreted that as a possible bottom.
Current counter-move starting at 14:31. Only 7 points so far.
For me, it can be hard to read these kind of moves correctly and to interpret them as simply counter-moves and retraces in a down trend. Differentiating between a retracement and a reversal. One of the most fundamental questions to solve in trading.
I still have that 3750 level in mind, but when the market starts these micro rallies it's hard to maintain conviction, so that's something I'm working on and need to address.
Ans as I was finishing that post the market made a new low.
Current counter-move starting at 14:31. Only 7 points so far.
For me, it can be hard to read these kind of moves correctly and to interpret them as simply counter-moves and retraces in a down trend. Differentiating between a retracement and a reversal. One of the most fundamental questions to solve in trading.
I still have that 3750 level in mind, but when the market starts these micro rallies it's hard to maintain conviction, so that's something I'm working on and need to address.
Ans as I was finishing that post the market made a new low.
If we continue down this path, 3735 looks to be a good target.
What's worse, you end up giving back all your profit and end up losing 10 points. Such a noob.
For me its really as simple as dont fight inertia. It feels amazing to catch a top or bottom - but it always has been and always will be a low probability losing game in the long run.
Pops today were opportunities to get short. I will say today was tougher with some ugly chop mixed into the macro downward action.
EDIT: This is also why I prefer scalping out in size at 1-2 pts and letting the rest run if my B/E stop doesnt kick out (most times it will). This way ive made my money and can just walk away not giving a shit what happens the rest of the session.
What's worse, you end up giving back all your profit and end up losing 10 points. Such a noob.
That's why I pretty much always B/E my entries.
Roughly:
1) Scalp trade for 1.5 points: B/E after 1.0 points of unrealized profits.
2) Scalp trade for 3.0 points: B/E + 1 tick after 2 points of unrealized profits.
3) Intraday swing trade: B/E or at least risk reduction after say 5-7 points.
I have a rule that I will never let a winner turn into a loser. My rationale is that if I'm at the computer I can re-enter if stopped.
It's usually a problem only if I B/E too quickly on an intraday swing trade where price haven't yet started moving sufficiently.
I love to run these once in a while, though. Everything including stop/limit/trailing stop is automated by Ninjatrader after my entry.
I only sit back and wait for the orders to execute and ring the cash register (yes, I actually have that as a sound when take profit orders are filled).
The beautiful thing about scalping is that there's always a trade. And if you have a conservative daily target you can be quickly done.
The negative thing about scalping is that it requires a very high win rate as it's most likely impossible to have a positive R/R ratio scalping ES. It might be possible with other instruments, but ES back-fills so much that it's not really something I see many people (if any) do successfully.