ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Yeah it's a tough way to make a living but some days it's the only way. Beginners should simply watch how price behaves in the range.
closing here at 34 +13
Man, did you nail that exit or what ? Well done !
luck. Placed the limit order there hours ago.
My target was like 2920 or so, but I just can't run targets on shorts as the market really doesn't like going down! So chose 34 instead and it worked out, luckily. I'd expect it to go lower, but the Fed might do their usual overnight pump up, so....
It is comments like these from you that out you as a bona fide trader. spooz. Yesterday, I remarked similarly about the bulls epic failure to move this thing up to $3K or higher ...
And a couple of folks responded that "that isn't a failure it's called a consolidation" and then his sock puppet chimed in saying "I agree no signs of weakness in this market."
I posted this in our chat this morning ... (note that "Al always" is a typo and should read "As always ...)
"Further failures at the highs to hold breakouts will be short opportunities" Further failures
That is a 240 minute chart. The arrows point to two failed breakouts by the bulls. This should have caught any fvcktard's attention because everyone, myself included (which you will see in a minute), expected SPX to make run for $3000. The fact that it tried to break to new highs not once, but twice, was a huge failure by the bulls.
"As always a third push, possibly to our 2991 to 2040 resistance range is possible."
Let's take a look at that 240 minute chart now ...
So we had a third push, but also, a failed breakout - three failed breakouts. Might it yet be mere consolidation at the high of the range and a successful breakout is upon us? Sure - anything can happen (sockpuppets no like that phrase because they do not understand the market as I do) But yesterday (and now today) epic failure by the bulls, which I expanded on in my next post to the chat room:
Even this morning just over an hour before the RTH open I still believed we get to $3000. I also said I expect the week will end with another failed breakout, and went on to explain why, based on trader behavior and not definitions found in a technical analysis text book: "The inability to take all that pre-open momentum and convert it to an RTH test of $3000" ... again, if you want to call failed breakouts "consolidations" rather than "failed breakouts," more power to you. Maybe it is the politically correct way not to make the bulls feel inferior or weak.
Anyhow, @Spooz Top 2 ... you make these type of remarks often, and today is the perfect day to tell you I appreciate that you do, because though we may not always agree on what is most likely coming next, I can always see why you are of the opinion you are at any given moment, because you trade based on price and the market understood as a human activity which is not the way most look at the market.
And I do not use the phrase "to hedge my bet" ... I use it because it is a central operating belief in the way I appraoch what I do. Also, I am especially careful to make sure to use it frequently because I have a young kid in our trading room who is doing great. And sometimes he allows himself to latch onto a bullish or bearish opinion and not see the other side. So I am drilling into the important concept that anything can happen - the best set up with everything in its favor can still fail to yield a profitable trade form time to time.
EDIT: And FWIW, that kid is up 111 points net of losses this month so far. Not too shabby a result, imo.
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