ES Journal - 2019/2020

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NQurious said:
It is comments like these from you that out you as a bona fide trader. spooz. Yesterday, I remarked similarly about the bulls epic failure to move this thing up to $3K or higher ...

And a couple of folks responded that "that isn't a failure it's called a consolidation" and then his sock puppet chimed in saying "I agree no signs of weakness in this market."

I posted this in our chat this morning ... (note that "Al always" is a typo and should read "As always ...)

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"Further failures at the highs to hold breakouts will be short opportunities" Further failures

That is a 240 minute chart. The arrows point to two failed breakouts by the bulls. This should have caught any fvcktard's attention because everyone, myself included (which you will see in a minute), expected SPX to make run for $3000. The fact that it tried to break to new highs not once, but twice, was a huge failure by the bulls.

"As always a third push, possibly to our 2991 to 2040 resistance range is possible."

Let's take a look at that 240 minute chart now ...

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So we had a third push, but also, a failed breakout - three failed breakouts. Might it yet be mere consolidation at the high of the range and a successful breakout is upon us? Sure - anything can happen (sockpuppets no like that phrase because they do not understand the market as I do) But yesterday (and now today) epic failure by the bulls, which I expanded on in my next post to the chat room:

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Even this morning just over an hour before the RTH open I still believed we get to $3000. I also said I expect the week will end with another failed breakout, and went on to explain why, based on trader behavior and not definitions found in a technical analysis text book: "The inability to take all that pre-open momentum and convert it to an RTH test of $3000" ... again, if you want to call failed breakouts "consolidations" rather than "failed breakouts," more power to you. Maybe it is the politically correct way not to make the bulls feel inferior or weak.

Anyhow, @Spooz Top 2 ... you make these type of remarks often, and today is the perfect day to tell you I appreciate that you do, because though we may not always agree on what is most likely coming next, I can always see why you are of the opinion you are at any given moment, because you trade based on price and the market understood as a human activity which is not the way most look at the market.
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I appreciate the kind words Q... as well as your market input.. very well prepared and thought out... I have to tell you that our #s & outlook usually coincide more often than not... good stuff... it’s nice to have the company & camaraderie of like minded individuals/ traders in the worlds loneliest profession! I enjoy your posts Q... keep me coming! :fistbump:
 
Well, the FOMO crowd woke up from their afternoon nap and bot the 6 pm open. Straight up for both ES and NQ with no significant PB's. Is this short covering or the start of the move to 3000 ?
 
Huyang said:
Very sorry. That was a typo. i meant your second short (2nd arrow down). I agree range scalps are for experienced traders. Thank you very much!
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My stop is above the high of the swing entry, others might keep it above the first entry short and others above the beginning of the bear move. These are the kind of things which will vary as to trade plan. You have to understand your risk/reward as well as likelihood that the trade will work. You are asking the right questions but it shows you have a great deal to learn. Take it slow and study and observe, the markets aren't going anywhere.
 
syswizard said:
Well, the FOMO crowd woke up from their afternoon nap and bot the 6 pm open. Straight up for both ES and NQ with no significant PB's. Is this short covering or the start of the move to 3000 ?
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I dunno' man. We see these patterns all the time. It's not speaking to me at all on direction. This on a 10,5 unirenko chart, and times listed at the bottom are US Eastern Time.

upload_2020-5-21_19-46-48.png


Nothing major here, simple 40 point range from Midnight until now.
 
vanzandt said:
bingo.
I wanted to share a case in point, but it appears YouTube/Goog has gone 100% off the rails.
"premium members"
wtf?

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Indeed, wtf! What is premium music members? Now we gotta' pay Youtube to see monetized videos? Bastuds!
 
speedo said:
My stop is above the high of the swing entry, others might keep it above the first entry short and others above the beginning of the bear move. These are the kind of things which will vary as to trade plan. You have to understand your risk/reward as well as likelihood that the trade will work. You are asking the right questions but it shows you have a great deal to learn. Take it slow and study and observe, the markets aren't going anywhere.
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Yes. i have a lot to learn. Observing the market is a great help and sometimes being slow is actually fast! Thank you!

The purpose of the question on 2nd short is that i feel that short is for very experienced traders, therefore i was trying to ask how you would manage it . Tricky for the following reasons (consistent with the word you chose "fizzled" ) :

Factors favor short: strong down 40 pts and now PB to touch EMA20 for the first time.
Factors favor HL risk: strong up to BO above previous down TL, PB high is only 6 pts above 2943 where had HSB followed by 30 pts move in ETH.

upload_2020-5-21_17-48-0.png
 
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