Its Schizzo man....
He's got his own way of doing things.
relax....
Have you ever looked at Magoo's charts?
I doubt seriously anyone thinks Magoo is someone to follow into trades.
Schizo, on the other hand,
is a credible trader, imo. And If I think so, I assume others do as well.
Look, I'm not trying to call out schizo or anyone here. Let me state my case a s amatter of opinion, and then others reading along can select which one they'd rather hold as their opinion.
Trading by price is sort of my thing, you know? I've spent a lot of time observing price action on the S&P and I believe, i.e. I am of the opinion that there is an objective and correct way to apply TA concepts and then a myriad of subjective and incorrect ways. I am not denying the old saw "there's more than one way to skin this cat." There certainly are. But we must recognize that some are better than others, e.g. some are far less messy.
Here is the origin of schizo's trendline:
He uses the 2/20 high, which was
not the all time high, as an anchor. Why not use the next day's high? Or the 2/20-2/21 lows? It is absolutely
random. Many ways to skin a cat, but this one is as likely to allow the the cat to bite you and run away, leaving you bleeding and baffled as to WTF happened as it is a cleanly skinned cat.
Again, not to call anyone out, but here is the origin os Sekiyo's trendline, which is a different bar interval than schizo's, but yields a similar "result" in terms of where this line projects out into the future:
Sekiyo's does have the virtue of appearing to be anchored to the all time high, but it is a hot mess after that as price just shoots like a randomly aimed laser beam into anywhere. Why that angle? What, pray tell, is the significance of any of the data points through which that laser cuts its path on its way to some randomly selected future chart point? One could simply use that high tick as a fulcrum and pivot that TL several degrees southwest or Northeast and change its future trajectory substantially, without at all being a deviation form whatever "technique" is being used her.
So here is how a TL anchored to the ATH and not piercing any price action data points thereafter wold project this "trend" into the future (if it were a trend at all, which it is not).
And, while this would be the correct way to use that ATH as an anchor to delimit a trend, in my opinion, it is, nonetheless,
not "a trend." But, if it were, this is where that "trend" would project into the future:
As you can see, it projects to a current level several hundred points above where either of the other attempts currently project.
In the end, none of the three attempts are useful at this moment as a TL. If any of three current placements do prove to mark a level of resistance in the future, whether tomorrow or next year, its having done so will likewise be a completely random coincidence. Here's why:
We had an all time high, a market crash low, and thus far a rally. Until we get a lower high followed by a lower low we can't say we have a down trend at all on that scale, can we? What we have is a long bull market that is currently in a trading range. The crash is the first bear leg of that trading range and we are currently in the first bull leg of that trading range.
I could say so much more but I have work to do. But is it any wonder guys like
@themickey - smart, level headed guys - find TA Nothing but but psychotically constructed castles in the air or fairy farts when so many examples abound of its application with no respect for the actual data it is meant to analyze?
And, let's remind ourselves that using TA at best is probabilistic. It does not yield certain answers. It is the equivalent of card counting in blackjack. It can show you moments in the market where the chance of one thing happening next is at least 5% or more likely to happen (sometimes significantly more likely to happen) than it's opposite.
In trading, as in any game of chance, that is the edge.
