ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Noone123]

This all ends very badly at some point. You can't fix debt with exponentially more debt.

Regardless, the powers that be have shown they will push this till the very end. It would appear that is much further than most will ever be able to wrap their head around (including me).

For now it's best to just ride this pony until its lungs collapse. Barring some crazy uncontrollable return of Covid19 in the fall at some point this market is going to explode to the upside. The amount of stimulus that will get thrown at this before it's over is going to be beyond historic. That's the one you won't want to get caught being long when its over IMHO.

Anyway near to mid-term I'm with @NQurious. A fat range - one in which hopefully the price action is fluid and not choppy as hell. We'll see.

P.S. "Typical" business cycles have been dead since unprecedented Fed intervention. Now we get some morbidly twisted version.

There's been slow selling or profit taking into all this buying lately. Of course, we watch PA for confirmation. We just sit back and watch who will win. In the meanwhile, I don't feel so bad going short for now.

 

[trading_jean]

The world as I see it ...

View attachment 226095

An extraordinary sell off that defies the best efforts to contain it with a traditional trend line (and here I mean a trend line of Trader Vic would approve, for example). The red line was the supply line as I most recently had described it for myself prior to the change in the immediate direction of prices.

The blue trend line, formed by anchoring to the the 3/23 low and what became the 4/3 pivot, shows a rapid rate of change in prices. The action this week denotes a change from that pace. It does not indicate a trend change. That may be what we have, but so far what we do have is a two day pull back and an attempt at a trend resumption up. A double top or higher high would have me drop the trend line to the 4/21 pivot. This would then denote the new pace of the trend.

The rectangle represents the current trading range as it has been marked out by PA - that range can expand or contract as ranges do. The right edge of the range extends out to May opex.

The price levels above the current range in red represent the range into which I expect prices to rise between Monday 4/27/2020 and May options expiration 5/15/2020. I believe there is a 65-70% chance that this expectation will be met. That means there is also a 30-35% chance we either remain in the current range (allowing for expansion/contraction) or the trend has or soon will change from up to down to lower prices.

And that's how my world looks to me at the moment. But as we know all too well from our current predicament, what the world looks like to us today can change in an instant tomorrow. But we live our lives based on what we got, and then adapt when change is forced upon us.

Y'all have a great week!

Extremely good post NQ.

 

[hafez50]

Man, sorry, but you seem to pleasantly forget that the market is completely disconnected from the economy at large. Like somebody already said, "it doesn't give a rat's ass" about the ordinary Joe and Jane Sixpack. Vaccine? Only for the rich. For you middle class vagabonds, who cares? No help for us bums, dude.

And i said the mkt will do what the mkt will do. What i'm saying is The person on main street will suffer. As far as trading goes i could care less as i trade whats happening not what i think should happen . As we've learned many times the mkt can defy reality for years. As i've said many times will somebody make 1/2% in a 1 yr cd or chase a stock and can make 10% in a day. We know the answer

 

[Relentless]

There's been slow selling or profit taking into all this buying lately. Of course, we watch PA for confirmation. We just sit back and watch who will win. In the meanwhile, I don't feel so bad going short for now.

Legging in myself

 

[vanzandt]

Don’t take yourselves too serious. Life is short. Listen to good music and stay humble.

Good one.
Looooove that song!

 

[Sekiyo]

If we break above 2900 -> 3100
If we break below 2700 -> 1800

Are you guys even remotely aware of this?????!! (Come on, now, wake up.)

View attachment 226090

 

[Relentless]

If we break above 2900 -> 3100
If we break below 2700 -> 1800




View attachment 226100

Ooof! With that R:R setup shouldn't be too hard to pick your directional bets huh?

 

[vanzandt]

Mindset? Like 2 months ago when everyone here thought we would NEVER go down, that we would go up forever?

Everyone?

Actually I think 2975 will be the new resistance... after 2690 is touched.

Moving on....

That trend line couldn't be any more random, @schizo ... it is meaningless.

Its Schizzo man....
He's got his own way of doing things.
relax.... Have you ever looked at Magoo's charts?

You think we're a pussy nation, dontcha? You'll be sorely proven wrong. Think back to 9/11. Think back to Pearl Harbor. What happened? We not only broke up Afghanistan and Iraq, we shattererd Al-qaeda. Also, we not only nuked Japan, but we ended the World War 2 for good. So you think we're a pussy nation who will be scared to pay 30% more for Walmart clothes? Think again. And don't come back here with your stupid pussy opinions.

Whoaaa!. Get em Schiz....
Beeeeeatch!

Don’t take yourselves too serious. Life is short. Listen to good music and stay humble.

Can we give 2 likes?!
Man, I haven't heard that in so long.... god I love that song.

Jane Sixpack.

You guys are f'n with me right?
Johnny Paycheck.... and now Jane?
I really should upgrade my firewall.

 

[vanzandt]

so the US cannot take care of themselves.

I knew that one was coming when I wrote that post....
That's precisely why I wrote "Corona punched the world in the face, but its only gonna make the U.S. stronger."
We learn from our mistakes.
Trust me, it'll never happen again.

I, like most all people outside the US, don't understand how Trump could become President.

See that's what your missing. He became president because a bunch of people were sick and tired of all the bs you so adequately pointed out in the rest of your post. Why? Because we are Americans and we aren't afraid to fight back. Maybe he is an idiot in some ways, and maybe he is a narcisistic whore who has the moral turpitude of Jephthah, but we voted him in, and now its 4 years later and we can, and probably will, vote him out.
You got a problem with that? Its a pretty good f'n system in my book.
Again, we rarely make the same mistake twice.
Next?

 

[Overnight]

...
Again, we rarely make the same mistake twice.
...

We can only hope you are correct. Else we will just repeat the same thing over and over again.