While that is true, market does whatever it wants and whenever. As a trader, I assess probability. Markets are oversold and overbought all the time. Grinding higher means nothing if you lose all of it back fairly quickly. What I see is alot of chasing the markets and optimistic assumptions.
ES Journal - 2019/2020
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Most importantly, although there are many pharma companies working on a vaccine, the earliest that these will become approved and available is summer of 2021.....and that is record breaking progress as far as new vaccines go. Normally it takes several years.
If that's what the articles are saying, then the market probably will go even higher.
Yes avg vaccine takes 5-10 yrs. So with he rush what are the side effects without much testing ? Will everyone get it worried about the side effects? I don't get a flu shot. How long will it take to deploy 100's of millions of doses? Thats 2 yrs min and by that time 100's of thousands go businesses will be gone. You get the idea
Mindset? Like 2 months ago when everyone here thought we would NEVER go down, that we would go up forever?
Man, sorry, but you seem to pleasantly forget that the market is completely disconnected from the economy at large. Like somebody already said, "it doesn't give a rat's ass" about the ordinary Joe and Jane Sixpack. Vaccine? Only for the rich. For you middle class vagabonds, who cares? No help for us bums, dude.
Mindset? Like 2 months ago when everyone here thought we would NEVER go down, that we would go up forever?
Exactly.
Worked out well for the bulls there didn't it?
The longer term participants that are buy and hold that held through that waterfall will be ok.
The FOMO RH'ers of the world on the other hand...
The world as I see it ...
An extraordinary sell off that defies the best efforts to contain it with a traditional trend line (and here I mean a trend line of Trader Vic would approve, for example). The red line was the supply line as I most recently had described it for myself prior to the change in the immediate direction of prices.
The blue trend line, formed by anchoring to the the 3/23 low and what became the 4/3 pivot, shows a rapid rate of change in prices. The action this week denotes a change from that pace. It does not indicate a trend change. That may be what we have, but so far what we do have is a two day pull back and an attempt at a trend resumption up. A double top or higher high would have me drop the trend line to the 4/21 pivot. This would then denote the new pace of the trend.
The rectangle represents the current trading range as it has been marked out by PA - that range can expand or contract as ranges do. The right edge of the range extends out to May opex.
The price levels above the current range in red represent the range into which I expect prices to rise between Monday 4/27/2020 and May options expiration 5/15/2020. I believe there is a 65-70% chance that this expectation will be met. That means there is also a 30-35% chance we either remain in the current range (allowing for expansion/contraction) or the trend has or soon will change from up to down to lower prices.
And that's how my world looks to me at the moment. But as we know all too well from our current predicament, what the world looks like to us today can change in an instant tomorrow. But we live our lives based on what we got, and then adapt when change is forced upon us.
Y'all have a great week!
An extraordinary sell off that defies the best efforts to contain it with a traditional trend line (and here I mean a trend line of Trader Vic would approve, for example). The red line was the supply line as I most recently had described it for myself prior to the change in the immediate direction of prices.
The blue trend line, formed by anchoring to the the 3/23 low and what became the 4/3 pivot, shows a rapid rate of change in prices. The action this week denotes a change from that pace. It does not indicate a trend change. That may be what we have, but so far what we do have is a two day pull back and an attempt at a trend resumption up. A double top or higher high would have me drop the trend line to the 4/21 pivot. This would then denote the new pace of the trend.
The rectangle represents the current trading range as it has been marked out by PA - that range can expand or contract as ranges do. The right edge of the range extends out to May opex.
The price levels above the current range in red represent the range into which I expect prices to rise between Monday 4/27/2020 and May options expiration 5/15/2020. I believe there is a 65-70% chance that this expectation will be met. That means there is also a 30-35% chance we either remain in the current range (allowing for expansion/contraction) or the trend has or soon will change from up to down to lower prices.
And that's how my world looks to me at the moment. But as we know all too well from our current predicament, what the world looks like to us today can change in an instant tomorrow. But we live our lives based on what we got, and then adapt when change is forced upon us.
Y'all have a great week!
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In a typical business cycle, we could slide into a recession eventually. Now, this coronavirus issue could push us, the world, into a recession. Yes, the stimulus helps but this only accounts for roughly 10% of GDP assumed to have been lost from this ordeal. This is not even talking about stimulus to kick start the economy. Like I said, there are still many unknowns. Markets could only make assumptions on those unknowns. It is trading like we are seeing the most optimistic scenario. That's a lot of pressure for things to go right to support the price. There will be likely multiple stimulus packages...got 2 so far for small biz. Don't forget Fed used up alot of ammo by taking us to near 0% rate. I hear that they are very very resistant to taking us to negative rate.
This all ends very badly at some point. You can't fix debt with exponentially more debt.
Regardless, the powers that be have shown they will push this till the very end. It would appear that is much further than most will ever be able to wrap their head around (including me).
For now it's best to just ride this pony until its lungs collapse. Barring some crazy uncontrollable return of Covid19 in the fall at some point this market is going to explode to the upside. The amount of stimulus that will get thrown at this before it's over is going to be beyond historic. That's the one you won't want to get caught being long when its over IMHO.
Anyway near to mid-term I'm with @NQurious. A fat range - one in which hopefully the price action is fluid and not choppy as hell. We'll see.
P.S. "Typical" business cycles have been dead since unprecedented Fed intervention. Now we get some morbidly twisted version.
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