ES Journal - 2019/2020

[hafez50]

I don't think there are many shorts left to shake out. There plenty of bulls now.

Its funny i've read 2 articles how analysts and people are a loss for words how the mkts at 2830 with 26 mil unemployed and things about to get really ugly ,

 

[schizo]

I don't think there are many shorts left to shake out. There plenty of bulls now.

Nah, I'm still short.

 

[Whynottrade]

Nah, I'm still short.

Last of my long positions got called away Friday. Overall portfolio now short, will add next week.

 

[syswizard]

Probably an advance to somewhere in the 2900's with gyrations to shake out more weak longs while sending what's left of the bears to a dirt nap.
Then onto wave's call of 500ish points south.
Seems logical anyway.

Not a bad scenario at all. The Fed has just decimated the bears. But how long can this continue ?

 

[Relentless]

I don't think there are many shorts left to shake out. There plenty of bulls now.

Tell me something since your bearish bias has been evident recently - even Friday:

Do you feel as if though the market has to have a big swing down from these levels? Because it certainly sounds like it.

 

[syswizard]

Its funny i've read 2 articles how analysts and people are a loss for words how the mkts at 2830 with 26 mil unemployed and things about to get really ugly ,

Exactly.... and what about all of the personal and business bankruptcies coming up ? Anyone owning commercial real estate may just as well head for the poor farm.

 

[Noone123]

Nah, I'm still short.

Me too. Current uptrend is not sustainable in the short term. At a minimum, it should go sideway.

 

[Noone123]

Tell me something since your bearish bias has been evident recently - even Friday:

Do you feel as if though the market has to have a big swing down from these levels? Because it certainly sounds like it.

Define big? While I think markets are showing signs of risk-off and we may not test 2200 again soon. But I think 2400 or 2600 may be possible. At a minimum, I think we range from 2600-2950 for a while.
EDIT: I really like for base to build at 2600 for sustainable push higher in Q4.

 

[Relentless]

Me too. Current uptrend is not sustainable in the short term. At a minimum, it should go sideway.

Last time I checked the markets don't give a rats ass whether anybody feels the current price action is "sustainable".

This is what I'm talking about. This very mindset is a large part of the reason we are still grinding higher.

Also for those willing to listen, I've said this for years:

"Markets have always been geared to make the most amount of people lose the most amount of money in the shortest amount of time."

Write that down.

 

[hafez50]

Exactly.... and what about all of the personal and business bankruptcies coming up ? Anyone owning commercial real estate may just as well head for the poor farm.

I 100% agree . Now comes all the incredible BK's hitting one after another . Think about this . Restaurants,Airlines , movie theaters . Even if every single person wants to go back to doing what they were doing before this they can't . Mandatory spacing in all the industry's means 1/2 as much business . And only 70-80% of the traffic will come back. So that means a few things. #1 they won't need to hire all the people back. #2 The co's will make much less re and profit . #3 . They'll have to renegotiate all leases . #4. i bet 10-20% of people will be allowed to keep working out of the house which means businesses won't need as much office space . Its a vicious loop about to happen over the next yr. Lets not even talk about what happens as outbreaks occur and places close of a 2nd wave in the fall.We've all got so used to everything will be better in 6 months (Thats why the its skied) but i truly believe this time its going to get bad and people will be shocked. Its an invisible enemy. But i caution this is what we face and the real world but who knows how market reacts.