ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Laissez Faire]

See man you nailed it as usual. Just got shaken / chopped a little this morning. Good call overall.

Hope you caught some of that rip up.

Thanks. Certainly got lost in the chop early on today. I actually had a quite decent long entry just when we started ripping, but trailed myself out too soon as I usually do.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Closing a short term swing on Fri is not a bad thing. I can get long again. This is the difference between trading an investing, With investing a hold is cool.

 

[NQurious]

I can get long again.

 

[vanzandt]

Certainly got lost in the chop early on today. I actually had a quite decent long entry just when we started ripping,

________________________________________

Why's 2885 called The Hog?
Either way, I think we may see a run for the hog today, and even Monday as all the bad news for the time being is out there.
More earnings next week will trigger the next sharp down-move.
For now we are heading towards the hog.

I think the whales' super-computers are in the trench warfare mode at the present.
In the absence of any bs headline news... its gonna be a tight range.
Chop chop.
Don't get chopped up.

"Look at me look at me. To the minute".

 

[schizo]

Here's to B1 and all the permabulls. Have a full weekend, y'all! (you know what I mean )

 

[vanzandt]

We've got big problems here Mick. They're just not talking about it yet. Commercial real-estate is gonna be in a hurt locker. Tenants won't be able to pay those exorbitant rents, many will go under. Then the land-lords will be in a pickle and lots of them will go bust... and you know who's next in the food chain... the banks.

I guess we'll keep printing money, but for real, this time really is different. (I know that's an adage many on WS like to mock, but this time is different. Sure they'll get a vaccine, but by then the damage will irreversible and irreparable.

Like I said a dozen times now, we'll get these rallies until they flat out ban short selling, but we are going to ratchet down a few clicks at a time.

Just read this replying on another thread.

Icahn's short is specific to credit default swaps, or "CDS," which are assets that back mortgages of corporate offices and shopping malls. Icahn said the housing market bubble of 2008 has "happened all over again" due to loans made in 2012 to shopping malls and more.

"You have a bunch of mortgages ... so the banks went out and loaned money against a lot of shopping malls, office buildings, hotels and retail," Icahn said. "It's all credible, institutions doing it again."

The banks sold mortgages on commercial real estate "and then, when they did those mortgages, [the banks] sliced and diced them and put them in something called a 'CMBX,' an index," Icahn said. The banks then sold bonds against these mortgages to clients. Icahn expects shopping malls and others in commercial real estate will default on these loans.

 

[syswizard]

Oil is in the midst of a huge continuation upmove.

Oil was for the most part a snooze today except for a sharp rally in the afternoon that put the shorts on notice. CL closed above 17.00. The market will be closely watching the EIA inventory report that is released every Wednesday at 10:30 am. Everything is going to be about inventory levels from now till the June contract settlement on May 19th.
What could spike the price of CL ?
1) Tweets by Trump....indicating either tariffs or an embargo on OPEC oil imports after OPEC renegs on it's promised production cut-backs
2) Tweets by Trump....indicating expansion of the SPR - Strategic Petroleum Reserve which is now about 80-90% full
3) a good report indicating crude inventory levels are not increasing
4) reports of increased oil demand
I believe cautious optimism is warranted here.

 

[themickey]

Just read this replying on another thread.....

Vanz, the majority crowd is usually wrong when it comes to making money on the markets.
Yes the media news is hugely negative.
The markets took a plunge and wiped out many who sold too late.
Markets atm are displaying cautious optimism, it must be, mkts are rising through this doom story.
Volumes are low, maybe due to fear and to the jobless who have no trading money, lack of Funds Money inflow.
But in the meantime, if one sits in cash they are missing an opportunity.
Saying that, this is not advice as many cannot make rhyme nor reason from the waves which either carry or drown participants.

 

[vanzandt]

Vanz, the majority crowd is usually wrong when it comes to making money on the markets.
.

Lol... you do realize Icahn started as a stock broker and is now worth $15B.

 

[themickey]

Lol... you do realize Icahn started as a stock broker and is now worth $15B.

Yes and the four largest banks in Australia operate the four largest brokerage operations in Australia.
Why would all four banks be so keen to own brokerages.
Gummint here is complicit in allowing banks to have a conflict of interest.
And the ASX here is listed on the ASX.