ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Laissez Faire]

Shorting around 3:30 on a Friday. Is one of the most difficult trades you can do, just FYI. I know because I use to do it all the time.

I haven't looked at the actual stats lately, but I know the probabilities work against you for sure (maybe they've gotten better since than, but I doubt it).

I checked that for you.

Generally, the odds of the last major swing being up on a Friday is 63 %.

Adding an additional parameter that was in effect yesterday, the odds of the last major swing being up on such a Friday as yesterday is 70 %.

What this means is that while a last swing down still can happen - odds favour the last major swing being up.

 

[syswizard]

I don't look at any indicators nor charts in this instance, the analysis is derived from just number crunching, I'm not prepared to disclose how it's done, took years to work it out.
Usually it can go wrong when markets become violent slamming up and down on huge shakeouts but it's rare and short lived.
Monday should be large upday on oil.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/4/10/oil-glut-closes-middle-east-s-largest-crude-terminal
Any move up in crude oil likely to be technical in nature.....like a short covering rally. Fundies remain pretty awful and bearish.

 

[NQurious]

60k is nothing when compared to all the other causes that contribute to ~2,800,000 deaths per year in the country

Hard to believe how many folks are unable to wrap their head around this situation and see it as it is rather than using the logical development of a 2 year old.

Here we have a disease that 5 months ago no one had ever heard of and today it is killing almost as many Americans each week as heart disease and more than those who are dying of cancer.

This is a new cause of death that wouldn't have made any list of "Causes of Death" anywhere in the world 5 months ago. You need to stop comparing this to car accidents and diabetes deaths. You need to stop looking a how many Americans die each year and look at the change to how many Americans are dying each week. And then look at the cause of death. We are not replacing 12K diabetes deaths or heart attach deaths or cancer deaths with 12K Wuhan Virus deaths each week. We are averaging an additional 12K dead Americans each week.

And that is the crisis, and it is happening in countries around the world. And Americans who argue that this is an over reaction do what Americans do what such Americans do: They make the whole world think that Americans are really stupid.

(on a somewhat humorous side note - before I hit "post reply" I noticed I had put $ signs in front of those 12k, i.e. $12K diabetes deaths - lol - when you are a trader, everything has dollar signs, right?).

 

[Laissez Faire]

Bear market? What bear market? I know Victor Sperandeo did some work on classifying bull and bear markets. One of his criteria was to use not only a percentage change, i.e., 20 %, but also a time filter.

Using a time filter - one may very well argue that we never entered a bear market.

As of this Friday's Close (and who would have thought only a few weeks ago)...

S&P 500:

The Closing price is currently 15,29 % from the ATH and an incredible 31,15 % from the current bottom.

NASDAQ:

The Closing price is currently 9,29 % from the ATH and 30,43 % from the current bottom.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart

NASDAQ Weekly Chart

 

[SPYgrain]

has been stated by more than 1 that the latest big sell-off was an E leg of an 18 month corrective expanding triangle (the end of a correction on a 10 year bull mkt) on monthly chart..and that now we've begun a new multi-year impulse up (despite how crazy this seems regarding the force/magnitude of the impact on our economy)...with C (down)-D-(up) E (down) shown on the above charts..(S&P)

 

[mrtimharrington]

Looking at this another way, the Fed pumped more QE into the market over the course of a week recently than they did during the whole of QE2 during the Financial Crisis... So maybe this is not as crazy as it seems (the market move I mean, not Fed actions)? Fed are pumping hard, how long it lasts is anyone's guess but so far the market is just trending higher and higher.

 

[Laissez Faire]

That's why I'm coining this the FED FOMO rally. Unless someone already used that term.

 

[SPYgrain]

Looking at this another way, the Fed pumped more QE into the market over the course of a week recently than they did during the whole of QE2 during the Financial Crisis... So maybe this is not as crazy as it seems (the market move I mean, not Fed actions)? Fed are pumping hard, how long it lasts is anyone's guess but so far the market is just trending higher and higher.

therefore for the purely technical trader (charts only), it could be said that the fed's current action was already baked in (anticipated)..I love charts !!

 

[mrtimharrington]

McKinsey can perhaps help us make more sense of it -

"According to McKinsey as of April 10, governments across the globe had announced stimulus plans amounting to $10.6 trillion—the equivalent of eight Marshall Plans."

I do not follow the funnymentals for trading decisions as I alluded to previously, but maybe just maybe this is not all as bearish as we may think on the surface.

 

[tiddlywinks]

We are averaging an additional 12K dead Americans each week.

Not clear if the graph is displaying the April 6-12 period, which, thus far, appears to be the Wuhan Virus peak in USA. Or if the numbers, as you are suggesting, are weekly averages with the start week (and end week) not listed.

If it is the week of April 6-12 only, the chart is nothing but cherry picked propaganda.