ES Journal - 2019/2020

[hafez50]

What's not being said is a ton of that Qe was just trillions of lost revenue (Most co's went to almost zero rev the past 45 days). It was not used just to buy stocks. Wall street wants you to believe that so you buy stocks there selling to you. If thats the case why did the mkt fall 15-20% from the first QE shot?Bottom line is the virus was known 3 months ago and all knew it was coming here yet the mkt went higher and higher and nobody cared. The same people that were calling game over 5 weeks ago are the new cheerleaders. Main street and the economy are screwed for the next yr. We'll have a pullback soon and evaluate things. If the mkt has another big leg down it won't be till sometime between June-Aug. Nobody saw the decline and nobody saw this big a rebound. Were all just guessing . Time will tell.Reality will set in when some of these people laid off won't be called back . Its not business as usual regardless if they find a cure. We had an 11 yr bull mkt and it was time for a bear mkt

 

[NQurious]

Not clear if the graph is displaying the April 6-12 period, which, thus far, appears to be the Wuhan Virus peak in USA.

We may or may not be near peak - but April 6th through 12th was not it. Turn off Fox news and go find yourself raw data. It is out there.

EDIT: I also recommend turning off the CNN, MSNBC, etc.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

Admit it Mickey, surf fixed you up with Price Drivers.

Surf & his Price Drivers were hands down the greatest fade this board has ever seen... an instantaneous 10 handles cushion once call was made!

 

[Sekiyo]

I hope we ain’t see a nice roller caster before my funds reach the account. Still short @ 2880 with my paper trade. We might bounce up and down for a while.
Let’s see. I don’t discard some upside still.
2900 maybe 2940 but that’s it.

 

[speedo]

Surf & his Price Drivers were hands down the greatest fade this board has ever seen... an instantaneous 10 handles cushion once call was made!

 

[volente_00]

Hard to believe how many folks are unable to wrap their head around this situation and see it as it is rather than using the logical development of a 2 year old.

Here we have a disease that 5 months ago no one had ever heard of and today it is killing almost as many Americans each week as heart disease and more than those who are dying of cancer.

This is a new cause of death that wouldn't have made any list of "Causes of Death" anywhere in the world 5 months ago. You need to stop comparing this to car accidents and diabetes deaths. You need to stop looking a how many Americans die each year and look at the change to how many Americans are dying each week. And then look at the cause of death. We are not replacing 12K diabetes deaths or heart attach deaths or cancer deaths with 12K Wuhan Virus deaths each week. We are averaging an additional 12K dead Americans each week.

And that is the crisis, and it is happening in countries around the world. And Americans who argue that this is an over reaction do what Americans do what such Americans do: They make the whole world think that Americans are really stupid.

(on a somewhat humorous side note - before I hit "post reply" I noticed I had put $ signs in front of those 12k, i.e. $12K diabetes deaths - lol - when you are a trader, everything has dollar signs, right?).

View attachment 225364

Except you ignore one simple fact

CV death rate is exponential on the ascent but eventually peaks and declines unlike cancer and heart disease that stay consistent


The bottom line is eventually we get a vaccine or heard immunity


Those 2 don’t apply to heart disease and cancer

Your argument also cherry picks 1 week of data at or near the peak of the pandemic

 

[NQurious]

Except you ignore one simple fact

CV death rate is exponential on the ascent but eventually peaks and declines unlike cancer and heart disease that stay consistent

That's what makes this a pandemic.

Your argument also cherry picks 1 week of data at or near the peak of the pandemic

We do not know that this is the peak. The rate of deaths since 4/12 suggest it is NOT yet the peak. You cannot cherry pick when you are using the actual data that happens also to be the most recent data.

Fvck didn't anyone at this fvkin place go to college and learn to observe and think?

 

[Overnight]

...


The bottom line is eventually we get a vaccine or heard immunity

..

Yeah, key word there is EVENTUALLY!

And the health pundits say at least a year as of this timestamp, for a vaccine. Polls are showing that most people will not be comfortable resuming normal life until they have been vaccinated. Another 12 months at least of paranoia, TP hoarding, and teleconferencing with Zoom, which by the way has about the shittiest audio-compression and error correction of any streaming chat service ever.

F-ing annoying.

We're doomed. This COVID thing is about as lifestyle-changing a thing as the development of the A-and H-Bomb. At least back then we had a war-hardy generation who knew how to deal with it rationally. Hardy and hearty Cold War folks.

Now all we have are snowflakes with no immunity to anything, because the vaccines might cause everyone to develop autism, or because God will save them.

 

[hafez50]

Yeah, key word there is EVENTUALLY!

And the health pundits say at least a year as of this timestamp, for a vaccine. Polls are showing that most people will not be comfortable resuming normal life until they have been vaccinated. Another 12 months at least of paranoia, TP hoarding, and teleconferencing with Zoom, which by the way has about the shittiest audio-compression and error correction of any streaming chat service ever.

F-ing annoying.

We're doomed. This COVID thing is about as lifestyle-changing a thing as the development of the A-and H-Bomb. At least back then we had a war-hardy generation who knew how to deal with it rationally. Hardy and hearty Cold War folks.

Now all we have are snowflakes with no immunity to anything, because the vaccines might cause everyone to develop autism, or because God will save them.

Overnight is correct. This is not about how many deaths the virus produces . This is a about life changing ways of life going forward. This is about many people scared to go to gyms, movie theaters,cruises,flying on planes, restaurants etc. Lets say 15% of people that used to work in offices now work from home. Tons of real estate will be on the mkt with no buyers. Many co's won't be hiring all the people back till they see if business comes back. We already had massive oversupply of so many business this will mean tons of company's not making it. The virus was just the catalyst to get the ball rolling .What this means for stock prices nobody knows. If true valuations are applied it means a min of a 50% correction . But wall street is Houdini at ignoring the facts so we might not fall a lot . But the guy on main street is going to feel big pain even if the guy on wall street doesn't

 

[Hooti]

Fvck didn't anyone at this fvkin place go to college and learn to observe and think?

Very curious which university you went to? And what courses or professors taught you to observe and think? ...seriously.

A lot of what passes for education does not teach one to observe/think.
I was a science major, but had a true liberal arts education. And my graduate degree was in an area of pathology, which is a 'detective' science... which is another layer/type of observation and thinking required. But it was some of the individual professors who made a difference for me. IMO, of course...