ES Journal - 2019/2020

[schizo]

My concerns with a rally is early than anticipated hyper inflation(not that it's guaranteed to happen, just saying). I know FED does not want deflation and has done a good job of keeping money supply out of the public's hands, not sure if the what they are currently doing is going to be as effective in doing that or if other countries will start to lose faith / purposely try to hurt USA further.

Anyone that's maybe more knowledgeable want to touch on this some? Normally I am 100% chart person, but when things are this extreme I like to factor it in if it makes sense to.

Nobody knows. Negative interest rate is currently not written in any of the Econ 101 books.

Personally, we will go through a long economic drought (aka stagflation) much like the Japan of the 90s, which they have yet to recover. Hence, I believe we will NEVER see the ATH again.

 

[NQurious]

Bad news already factored in.

I think that the market hasn't begun to factor in what it coming. If the pols do not act quickly we are three to four week from a housing/mortgage/rent crisis that will make 2007-2009 look like subdued pullback.

 

[DarthSidious]

Unlike in the US, where they're handing out stimulus checks, South Korea is issuing gift cards with expiration date. How smart is that?

Stimulus check is stupid, agree. But direct deposit is better than gift card.
But finally got broke ass IL to send me my tax refund for 2019, so that's nice. Grossly overpaid last year, so a far bigger chunk than inky dinky stimulus check

 

[schizo]

Stimulus check is stupid, agree. But direct deposit is better than gift card.
But finally got broke ass IL to send me my tax refund for 2019, so that's nice. Grossly overpaid last year, so a far bigger chunk than inky dinky stimulus check

Well, if you want to boost the economy (after all, I'd think that's the main reason for the "stimulus" checks), the last thing you want is for people to hoard that money. So it would be better, in my opinion, to issue gift cards that must be spent within a short period of time.

 

[NQurious]

Stimulus check is stupid, agree.

Why do you say that?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

A fed governor predicted 32 percent unemployment and yet the Izzy Bottom continues to hold. We would need a new surprise catalyst to drive prices lower. Right now, the bad news in factored into the market.

 

[NQurious]

Well, if you want to boost the economy (after all, I'd think that's the main reason for the "stimulus" checks), the last thing you want is for people to hoard that money. So it would be better, in my opinion, to issue gift cards that must be spent within a short period of time.

The "stimulus" is the corporate socialism. The direct payments to individuals is so that there will be an economy left to stimulate when we come out the other side of this.

I agree with Taleb on this: corporations (and investors) who are not prepared nor properly hedged should be allowed to fail and regular direct payments to income earners should be made until the economy opens up. I'm in Pennsylvania - one of the many stay at home states. If we count folks who were working who are currently not drawing a check we are at far higher than 30% unemployment. Until two weeks ago I could look out my office window all day long while trading and not see a soul. Now I can't look out without seeing some grim looking neighbor doing their best to appear to be walking with purpose.

I liked it better when folks just slept in my neighborhood but went away every day. Used to have the whole place to myself lol

 

[NQurious]

the Izzy Bottom continues to hold

Depends?

 

[DarthSidious]

Why do you say that?

Check as a delivery mechanism. That's all. Checks are extremely prone to fraudulent cashing
Edit: But I understand there seems to be no other way when IRS doesn't have your direct deposit info

 

[Overnight]

Rarely, do you get a longer term buy signal as strong as I saw on today's and this week's closing. Next week is going to be a barn burner-----Especially with the pandemic over.

Did you enter long for a weekend hold, which I inadvertently did today by going long at a kinda' peak? 21105 on the MYM? Last time I did that, 8000 points above, I got burned pretty badly.

Let's see what this weekend brings. After all, it is risk free zero $$$, and all the bad news is priced in! Right?

If you really have that conviction, you would do it with real monies.