ES Journal - 2019/2020

[hhiusa]

I predict (although I hate that word), it going up ultra short term maybe 50-100 points before another drop. During the Depression, the values were so depressed that each time (3 large bounces) they pushed it up about 10-15% before sliding. In fact, the rises were short and ephemeral and the drops afterwards were smooth. The faster something drops, the more likely people are to pounce. Recessions with no precipitous drops, have little to no dead cat bounces; or, at least very muted ones.

May SPX 2200 put was around $6000/contract.

 

[schizo]

Hrmmmm....Well, I was taught (and it makes sense) that you can make money in any market, so long as it moves. LE had not been moving until recently. Now it's grooving, because the world has gone to shit. EVERYTHING IS MOVING like gangbusters. (Excpet Class IV milk, I bet that still sucks, lol)

I dunno' man, I need a vacation. But now we are not allowed to go anywhere. I'm doomed.

P.S. Jet flights relax me.

Man, what are you talking about? You were so jet-lagged long before this crisis erupted. You need to stop rolling that dope.

 

[Noone123]

Seeing some good 20-25 pts flipping opportunities tonight.

 

[NQurious]

Hey... if gold drops to $480/oz... (an equivalent drop compared to oil @ $60/bbl)... I'm gonna call a bottom... and I can be a market guru too! Maga!.
Gimmee a f'ing break. Don't make me puke.
What's his next call gonna be... it'll rain in Georgia in April?
Goddamn he's brilliant.
How'd I ever miss oil at $20?! I thought it was going to $3. The shit just bubbles up out of the ground.

Oil is going to $12 - going to take more than a lying tweet to keep it from happening. May be 3 to 6 months out, but it is going to $12 or close to it.

 

[trading_jean]

A close friend of mine that is an expert on oil (trader for an oil company) also says 10 to 15 million barrels less is not very likely. Apparently lowering production on mature oil fields is nearly impossible and smaller producers will keep on producing to cash their hedges.

 

[vanzandt]

Oil is going to $12 - going to take more than a lying tweet to keep it from happening. May be 3 to 6 months out, but it is going to $12 or close to it.

$60 to $12.
80%
The "lifeblood of our economy".

What's 80% of 3250?

pffff.... ES 2000 is sooooo on the way.

 

[Laissez Faire]

### in 3 minutes.

Regardless - for today, I'm looking at a sell on the day.

May not be a dramatic day, but should close lower than yesterday for sure.

 

[NQurious]

$60 to $12.
80%
The "lifeblood of our economy".

What's 80% of 3250?

pffff.... ES 2000 is sooooo on the way.

Probably going back to the 2007 highs eventually.

It has seemed to me that oil was never allowed to settle back and find a natural level after the last commodity bull market. Its price has been kept artificially high to maintain the US oil industry.

 

[vanzandt]

### in 3 minutes.

Regardless - for today, I'm looking at a sell on the day.

May not be a dramatic day, but should close lower than yesterday for sure.

Watch the volume early for a clue, the first 2 hours. If it's light, expect a strong run after 2 PM.
I'm out, good trading today guys. Stay safe.

 

[BeautifulStranger]

$60 to $12.
80%
The "lifeblood of our economy".

What's 80% of 3250?

pffff.... ES 2000 is sooooo on the way.

For now, the spot trucking freight market is holding up better than what may be expected. Hours of service requirements have been suspended for Corona related loads. The company I lease with is paying a $50.00 bonus to both agents and driver for each load they book. I suspect the main reason the spot freight market has not dropped significantly recently is there seems to be some driver reluctance to travel to COV-19 hot zones or even in general. The typical age of over the road drivers are in the 50s with many who smoke and are obese, strong candidates for CV related complications. Many owner operators are highly leveraged with typically marginal credit. When the spot market finally bears the full brunt of reduced freight volumes, a lot of small trucking companies will be going under, probably fairly quickly. I was going to take an extended break from trucking, but I better make hay while the getting is still relatively good.