ES Journal - 2019/2020

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As of now - we're set to open with a small gap down.

Main scenario would be that we trade up towards 2516 - 2523 and sell off from there.

If no resistance there and we blast through yesterday's High - I'm thinking all is set for a decent up day with an upside target of say 2600. That's plan B. ;)

More ### coming up at 09:45 and 10:00.
 
Non farm payrolls: Previous +275k, expected -100k, actual -791k? Along with 4 more weeks under quarantine? I thought of the ugly numbers that would be coming out, but damn. It seems like we are in race between stimulus efforts and an economic unraveling.
 
NQurious said:
Probably going back to the 2007 highs eventually.

It has seemed to me that oil was never allowed to settle back and find a natural level after the last commodity bull market. Its price has been kept artificially high to maintain the US oil industry.
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Oil price has always been a part geopolitics and part supply/demand. OPEC has been around for a long time. But, oil would have been much higher last 10+ years if not for US shale. We are literally the only competition OPEC+ has. Shale keeps the prices lower, not higher
 
DarthSidious said:
Oil price has always been a part geopolitics and part supply/demand. OPEC has been around for a long time. But, oil would have been much higher last 10+ years if not for US shale. We are literally the only competition OPEC+ has. Shale keeps the prices lower, not higher
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We agree about supply/demand & geopolitics. We disagree as to whether US shale production kept price low. We are likely about to see a test of the two hypotheses. We shall see.
 
NQurious said:
We agree about supply/demand & geopolitics. We disagree as to whether US shale production kept price low. We are likely about to see a test of the two hypotheses. We shall see.
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I am not sure what the test will be though. If prices stay low, leveraged shale companies in US will fail. Then, with competition eliminated, as prices go up (Saudi can't balance budget at these prices), shale will restart and drag prices lower again.
 
Laissez Faire said:
### in 3 minutes.

Regardless - for today, I'm looking at a sell on the day.

May not be a dramatic day, but should close lower than yesterday for sure.
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Maybe. Think that we've had several Fridays were the market fell in the last hour of the session because nobody wanted to hold over the weekend. After yesterday's pop in oil, maybe we see the opposite tonight. I'm not saying that's what's going to happen, just keeping an open mind.

(That said, I'm bearish af :D )
 
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