ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Laissez Faire]

From reading some of the posts on this forum, I get a sense that not a lot of them have truly witnessed or actually traded during 2000-2003 or 2008-2010 bear markets. I'm sure most of them will not make it through this bear market. But that's part of the game.

Equally - one can say that those who were conditioned to markets of the past got badly burned trying to short this great bull since it there had to be a crash at some point. How many top calls have there been for these last years?

Most traders seem to have difficulties adjusting and some remain remarkably stubborn in their views. A directional day trader needs to be very flexible and simply trade on the evidence he's using for his analysis and execution.

As for a bear market, I'd say it remains to be seen if this becomes one. I hope so for my own selfish reasons, but even at this point, I'm not convinced we will not find a bottom before or around 20 % down or so.

Remember the fall of 2018. I thought that was it. So did a lot of others.

 

[schizo]

In theory, I would agree wholeheartedly. But in practice, that would mean you need to jump from extreme greed to extreme fear in order to survive. Who would want to live like that? Only morons. And that's what I think of the market.

 

[trading_jean]

@B1S2: I have a question if you don't mind answering. You seem convinced this is just a dip and the bull market is still in place, correct? If so: what would you need to see to change your mind? Any specific PA? Particular trendline or support broken? Bad fundamentals/earnings?

Don't get me wrong, I am not claiming we will go down another 10% from here. Truth is I have no idea (but since I trade on the 5M chart it doesn't matter much).

 

[schizo]

Remember the fall of 2018. I thought that was it. So did a lot of others.

You brought up a good point. I believe going down to the low of 2018 fall is quite possible. That's 2340 on the ES, which is roughly 46% drop from the ATH.

 

[Laissez Faire]

You brought up a good point. I believe going down to the low of 2018 fall is quite possible. That's 2340 on the ES, which is roughly 46% drop from the ATH.

It should be a signature line of mine by now: "I hope you're right, but I fear you're wrong."

Except this time - I'm wondering if it can actually happen. But let's start with 20 % down at ES 2715.

 

[Overnight]

You brought up a good point. I believe going down to the low of 2018 fall is quite possible. That's 2340 on the ES, which is roughly 46% drop from the ATH.

Why would it need to? Lose all of 2019 AND 2020 gains? For what fundamental reason?

 

[syswizard]

Wow what a roller coaster. I won't (day)trade the market from a directional perspective for now. I cannot trade it: 15-20 point ES jumps in a matter of seconds? Madness! Wonder how you guys do it. Too aggressive for me.

Then trade with the new Micro contracts.....one tenth the size of ES/NQ. Check them out: MESH20, MEQH20.

 

[schizo]

Why would it need to? Lose all of 2019 AND 2020 gains? For what fundamental reason?

Only way to get out of the bubble is to remove the excess froth.

 

[schizo]

It should be a signature line of mine by now: "I hope you're right, but I fear you're wrong."

Except this time - I'm wondering if it can actually happen. But let's start with 20 % down at ES 2715.

I say this because the signature line for all past bear markets is "If it ain't 50% drop, it ain't no bear market." In all truth, however, the previous two bear markets actually went down more than 50%. I guess only time will tell.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

A move below 2700 would begin to give me pause in this market.