Uhm...actually, 2008 was far worse than now. Of course, it will likely get a lot worse from now on. Brace yourself. You have yet to see what raw "panic" looks like. It's nasty. That's why I hate trading so much. It shows the raw emotions of greed and fear.
ES Journal - 2019/2020
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I sincerely hope history repeats itself. I hope that does not make me evil.
Far worse? Was it really?
I'm not talking about the crisis in total - but the sequence of days from the top on this specific week. That is - this many days down in a row at this size without any corrections in between.
Wow what a roller coaster. I won't (day)trade the market from a directional perspective for now. I cannot trade it: 15-20 point ES jumps in a matter of seconds? Madness! Wonder how you guys do it. Too aggressive for me.
Got the wrong entry point in the morning (puts @3025 & @3040). When price moved up my stops didn't trigger (I should not have set limit orders ...), decided to hold and see if 3100 would break, but seeing my P&L so much in the red was hard. Got lucky it dropped again. When it moved below 3030 I put on a trailing stop as it was trading around 3040 for some time and actually expected to close around there. Stopped out at 3027-ish exactly at break-even. Holding through one more wig-up would have meant a massive profit as it was one straight line down from there, but going from so much in the red to break even still feels as a victory.
Only trade Vol for now. Fly's are practically free at the moment.
Got the wrong entry point in the morning (puts @3025 & @3040). When price moved up my stops didn't trigger (I should not have set limit orders ...), decided to hold and see if 3100 would break, but seeing my P&L so much in the red was hard. Got lucky it dropped again. When it moved below 3030 I put on a trailing stop as it was trading around 3040 for some time and actually expected to close around there. Stopped out at 3027-ish exactly at break-even. Holding through one more wig-up would have meant a massive profit as it was one straight line down from there, but going from so much in the red to break even still feels as a victory.
Only trade Vol for now. Fly's are practically free at the moment.
I agree. However, that's most likely attributable to the emergence of HFT, which was absent in the previous bear markets. Also we've never had 12 years of full-fledged bull market either. The greater the bubble, the greater its pain. It's always been like that. It's unfortunate that people are woefully ignorant of this fact.
My last word: No, it wasn't different this time. It was the same all along, and it will always be the same. It's not the corona virus but the stupidity of greed that got us into this mess.
Yes, I'm not in a mood within this thread to start a off topic debate about technical analysis indicators and how they work/don't work, NQ, I'm with you here.
Yup....
Asian Contagion, Ruble Collapse, Argentina, LTCM, etc. in 1998-2000 was even worse than
`08 from a percentage bases... Lock limit down w/ Collars on every morning! Traders wouldn`t even show up & were never to be seen again on my desk... So certainly not unprecedented but big damage is being done!
Just to put in perspective on how far extended we are.... The monthly TL is down
around 2600 area... Newer traders will blow up & go tapioca on weeks like this...
being conditioned to expect the markets to constantly rebound after even mild sell offs is the nail in the coffin for anyone just starting in last 11 yrs or so.
I personally love playing an accordion in this type of environment of Vol & PA...
I came up & was thrown into the pit in this environment & was extremely disappointed when it stopped... felt like I was the last one standing without a chair when the music stopped & everything was moving in slow motion.
Good Trading to you All... reduce your size & play it tight to vest... Hands hi.. Chin tight & keep your back to wall in case it comes from any angle!
-Steve
I knew eventually we'd bury the hatchet
From reading some of the posts on this forum, I get a sense that not a lot of them have truly witnessed or actually traded during 2000-2003 or 2008-2010 bear markets. I'm sure most of them will not make it through this bear market. But that's part of the game.
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