ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Strong Open. I'll also agree that we're likely to revert to Friday's Close by tomorrow's Open.

If we open gap up at/above Friday's High on the RTH Open, I think we can have another solid up day.

If opening flat - I think we'll see a sideways/down day capped by Friday's High.

Initial hypothesis...
 
Strong Open. I'll also agree that we're likely to revert to Friday's Close by tomorrow's Open.

If we open gap up at/above Friday's High on the RTH Open, I think we can have another solid up day.

If opening flat - I think we'll see a sideways/down day capped by Friday's High.

Initial hypothesis...
Sell any strength for now...but think about going long (later this week) and front running the FOMC minutes on 6/18.

Then... when the FOMC minutes come out... sell that but prepare to buy back in, front running the G-20 meeting... until about 3 days prior... then sell that.

This stuff is so easy.
-Don't forget... Mark this post. :cool::p
 
Day trade short 2888.50 Initial stop 2908.00
Sux you had to get stopped out at 2896 and absorb a 133 point loss. You never listen.
I notice you blocked your user profile here now. Probably a good move.

Anyway... 2888 might work, but we'll bounce up first tonight... before the gallows spring open. That almost goes without saying. The bounce that is. Are you sure you really trade B1?
 
of course B1 has "special stops" that don't activate in extended hours

He seems to have a pretty consistent modus operandi whereby his stops only are active during RTH. As he has been consistent on that for years, apparently, then I think we have to give him that assumption to be fair. Also, it is not a terribly uncommon practice to operate in such a way, I believe.
 
What is 10X size?

Does this mean that your stop at 58 was ignored and that you're holding that trade while multiplying initial bet size with 10 at the price you were supposed to stop out on? And in your third post you're adding even more?

The way this looks to an outsider is that you can't handle being wrong, add to a losing trade and expose yourself to huge losses which can ruin an otherwise nice P&L curve.

You put your initial stop there for a reason. Trading above there invalidated your trade idea, no?

But perhaps there are pieces of this trade that's missing and that your options protect your downside. Can't say I fully understand it.

Good luck. :)


I am averaged into a short position to play a mean reversion to 2804-2814

The calls sold are a bearish bet as well


No difference in making 3 shorts with 10 point stops or a 30 point stop on an averaged in one


I don't see SPX closing much over 2900 before a reversion to 2804-2814


Maybe I am wrong


Time will tell
 
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