ES Journal - 2019/2020

[Laissez Faire]

I am averaged into a short position to play a mean reversion to 2804-2814

The calls sold are a bearish bet as well

No difference in making 3 shorts with 10 point stops or a 30 point stop on an averaged in one.

Excluding commissions, 3 x 10 points and a 30 point stop is the same if you're trading the exact same # of contracts. Sure.

But when you say you're adding at subsequently higher levels AND went in with 10X size at your initial stop 40 points lower than we're at now it does not seem like the risk is the same. In fact - it seems like you're taking on a huge risk. Particularly if the options were not a hedge.

I don't see SPX closing much over 2900 before a reversion to 2804-2814

Maybe I am wrong

Time will tell

I think that is a big mistake.

While you can have a trade idea or a main hypothesis, you should always see the alternative scenario. A trade can have a 90% probability of success, but a 100% probability of success is rare.

Either way - good luck.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Day trade short 2888.50 Initial stop 2908.00

Stop lowered to 2886.25

--stopped overnight for a gain of 2 pts--

 

[NQurious]

While you can have a trade idea or a main hypothesis, you should always see the alternative scenario.

100%

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Short Sep ES 2765.25 Initial stop 2896.00

Out at 2892.50 for loss of 127.25 pts. (Net win on position short was 69.75 pts)

 

[Laissez Faire]

As long as we hold above 90 - I think there's a good chance we'll print 2910 + today. Maybe 2913.

 

[Rickshaw Man]

FOMC to cut rates soon, more free money coming. Chance of a prolonged downtrend is looking pretty slim.

 

[tenny1886]

97.71 so far has the most likely ceiling formation since open. could be good for range.

 

[tenny1886]

if closes below 95.25 convincingly i am starting short position.

 

[_eug_]

i think 2917 before any serious down move is to happen

 

[tenny1886]

bears dont have momentum. looks like it will go higher than 97.75.
95.25 bulls are not letting go. cant close a complete candle below 95.25 on my chart.