ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Why such a wide stop? Is not our primary trading objective to either risk a little to make a lot or to trade high probability setups with win percentages greater than 50% and that risks 1 to 1 or even better?

A 54 point stop on a long trade on ES should imply you are looking at weekly, if not monthly charts with an objective of 3007 for at least 1:1. New highs on the ES daily chart from here on out will probably be in small, say in 5 to 10 point increments. Your wide stop seems very inefficient and exposes you to event risk of which there seems to be no shortage of possibilities right now. Nervousness over China illiquidity, one of the major powers getting hot over Venezula, or a big US political event could cause a big selloff on short notice. Intraday, I can’t imagine risking more than 3 points, preferably less, using HWB with current volatility levels.

FMOC minutes are coming up and a decent upstroke in prices would probably be a good short term fade, Perhaps with a soon to expire long put for potentially outstanding R:R.
Stop is outside where it could be hit overnight so I can sleep. It's a mental stop.
 
This is a MASSIVE OUTRADAY BUY SET UP ... First target 2951, then 2958, then 2970 ...

View attachment 201462

Just a reminder that from last Thursday's buy in the 2914's, two of the three targets then posted have since traded ... two down, one to go. FWIW the first is generally a given, the second is icing on the cake, the third indicates melt up (or melt down in the case of short signals).

Based on the HWB low that traded 12/24-26, the cash $SPX is likely going straight to 3207.78 and the institutions are buying every pullback the whole way up.

I know some think 3200 seems beyond reach and reason, but that target was available since last September's high (though it did not become viable until the decline began in earnest into the 2018 lows). So if you think 3200 seems unreasonable here at 2950's, imagine how much more implausible it would have seemed in December in the 2350's ... and yet Big Money started buying there and Big Money keeps right on buying.
 
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