Boom, there it is..1 tick..was away from screen temporarily.
ES Journal - 2019/2020
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
USD/JPY has already made its move lower - correction is coming. The Japanese passive ETF fetishistas had their fun, now it´s time to take some money off the table. +17,08% since Jan 1st is absolutely nuts in real investment terms.
S&P 500 will follow USD/JPY lead. Fasten your seat belts. Lots of S&P 500 underlying gaps to fill. First one: 2840. See you soon there!
BTW: S&P put premiums really cheap!
USD/JPY has already made its move lower - correction is coming. The Japanese passive ETF fetishistas had their fun, now it´s time to take some money off the table. +17,08% since Jan 1st is absolutely nuts in real investment terms.
View attachment 201692
S&P 500 will follow USD/JPY lead. Fasten your seat belts. Lots of S&P 500 underlying gaps to fill. First one: 2840. See you soon there!
BTW: S&P put premiums really cheap!
Some supportive "color"....
This market have been 'nuts' for quite a while now.
If +17,08 % is nuts - how about 15 %? 12 %? 10 %? Was it nuts then? What will you say at + 20,00 %?
IMO - if it's a top worth shorting, you'll get your short signal, just like we did last October. Sure, maybe you'll miss the initial drop, but is that not better than to keep shorting a rising market and racking up losses trying to catch the exact top?
IMO of course, since the market can stay irrational longer than...
Nice comment and charts though. Thanks for sharing.
Stopped out today for loss of 11 pts. Will get long here in afterhours.
Looking for a little pullback and then will get long.
The gap that keeps me awake at night is the gap back at the October 7, 1982 open ... g'lordy when they ever decide to fill that one ... $SPX 125.55
Then again, maybe gaps just aren't all that important when once the session that produced the gap closes? Maybe?Not bad for an old fashioned, pure chartist approach, right? That TA and PA still seems to have some gas in the tank, if you ask me.
Why such a wide stop? Is not our primary trading objective to either risk a little to make a lot or to trade high probability setups with win percentages greater than 50% and that risks 1 to 1 or even better?
A 54 point stop on a long trade on ES should imply you are looking at weekly, if not monthly charts with an objective of 3007 for at least 1:1. New highs on the ES daily chart from here on out will probably be in small, say in 5 to 10 point increments. Your wide stop seems very inefficient and exposes you to event risk of which there seems to be no shortage of possibilities right now. Nervousness over China illiquidity, one of the major powers getting hot over Venezula, or a big US political event could cause a big selloff on short notice. Intraday, I can’t imagine risking more than 3 points, preferably less, using HWB with current volatility levels.
FMOC minutes are coming up and a decent upstroke in prices would probably be a good short term fade, Perhaps with a soon to expire long put for potentially outstanding R:R.
Really nice trading today, glazier, happy for you!
- Status