ES Journal - 2019/2020

[speedo]

Well, I don't know your system in detail and I'm sure you need both filters to keep you out of non-directional movements and also adjustment of perhaps both MA values and tick chart settings as market conditions change. The latter being the biggest challenge for all trading systems/approaches. If market conditions were stable always, constructing a system would be easy.

If what you have works for you, it works. But I don't think there's anything 'easy' about it, although the finalized solution might be simple after putting a lot of thought and research behind the rules governing such a system.

I didn't say anything about simple although I do believe in the principle of keeping things as simple as possible while remaining effective.

 

[NQurious]

Indicators are objective and reduces interpretation.

By "interpretation" am I correct in that you are referring specifically to subjectivity? If so, isn't what we take to be subjective simply that which we have no natural nor conventional definition established by which to judge that which we seek to understand through subjective interpretation?

I see price bars as objective as a moving average. I do not agree with those who disparage indicators because they are "derivitive" because the fact is that price bars themselves are derivative. The only non-derivative feature of price action available to us is, at best, the current bid-offer spread. Even the tick, the most recent individual transaction, is derivative.

How do you differentiate between a reversal and a pullback? Is it a deep pullback or an actual reversal? Will that reversal point be tested with a bigger countermove? Have we changed direction from up to down? Or are we going sideways?

These are all important questions that must be defined by the trader in advance. Differentiation is a matter of definition, some would add, quantification.

A different question would be "how do you know it is a reversal and not a pullback?" You know because you will have defined each, and at some point the price action is going to move in a manner that disqualifies it as a pullback and instead characterizes it as a reversal, or it is going to move in a manner that confirms it was a pullback. There is, of course, no way of knowing before hand which is going to occur. There are, however, ways to determine which is more likely, and an optimal moment to take a position, place an exit stop loss in case price doesn't confirm, profit capture and target taking, etc.

So, with the high failure rate in day trading you think it's that easy?

I think the high failure rate has much to do with the unwillingness of most to study their chosen market, learn its character and behavior, and formulate a trading plan that will allow them to capitalize on the understanding of market behavior they developed.

I also think pattern recognition is important, and the ability to recognize such patterns in real time is very rare. It is made even more difficult by the fact that most humans think they are smarter than they are and even smarter than the rest of humanity. That is why they will continually lose shorting a market day after day after day because they "know" the economy is piss poor and this things going down only an idiot would be long here based on the most recent data we have on Peking duck imports.

 

[speedo]

By "interpretation" am I correct in that you are referring specifically to subjectivity? If so, isn't what we take to be subjective simply that which we have no natural nor conventional definition established by which to judge that which we seek to understand through subjective interpretation?

I see price bars as objective as a moving average. I do not agree with those who disparage indicators because they are "derivitive" because the fact is that price bars themselves are derivative. The only non-derivative feature of price action available to us is, at best, the current bid-offer spread. Even the tick, the most recent individual transaction, is derivative.



These are all important questions that must be defined by the trader in advance. Differentiation is a matter of definition, some would add, quantification.

A different question would be "how do you know it is a reversal and not a pullback?" You know because you will have defined each, and at some point the price action is going to move in a manner that disqualifies it as a pullback and instead characterizes it as a reversal, or it is going to move in a manner that confirms it was a pullback. There is, of course, no way of knowing before hand which is going to occur. There are, however, ways to determine which is more likely, and an optimal moment to take a position, place an exit stop loss in case price doesn't confirm, profit capture and target taking, etc.



I think the high failure rate has much to do with the unwillingness of most to study their chosen market, learn its character and behavior, and formulate a trading plan that will allow them to capitalize on the understanding of market behavior they developed.

I also think pattern recognition is important, and the ability to recognize such patterns in real time is very rare. It is made even more difficult by the fact that most humans think they are smarter than they are and even smarter than the rest of humanity. That is why they will continually lose shorting a market day after day after day because they "know" the economy is piss poor and this things going down only an idiot would be long here based on the most recent date we have on Peking duck imports.

Well stated..

 

[vanzandt]

Short at 2885.25. Double down order set at 2887.50
Stop at 2891.25 for the whole boat.

I'm getting on the Izzy train tonight. "The trend is down".

Journal integrity:
I did fill on the double down... I just took the extra off though.
I thought that was going to be a great trade too.
Oh well... At least I didn't stay up and baby sit it all night... watching paint dry... and it didn't get stopped out so... here we are. Paint's still drying.

Where's our favorite Russian Fordewind been this week? Kinda miss his antics.

 

[volente_00]

Shorted avg 2893
Stop 2913.25

 

[vanzandt]

Welp... there went Izzy's 2892 stop in his large outra-day Dubai account.
Downtrend remains in tact.

 

[NQurious]

As most know, I don't have my hard stop in place during the afterhours as the market is too thin and easily manipulated

So when do you take your loss? Do you exit now while the market is still at your 73 point stop loss, or do you take your chances and hope for a pullback during RTH? I ask only for journal integrity purposes and because I am unfamiliar with your standard operating procedure (SOP).

 

[themickey]

......I also think pattern recognition is important, and the ability to recognize such patterns in real time is very rare. It is made even more difficult by the fact that most humans think they are smarter than they are and even smarter than the rest of humanity. That is why they will continually lose shorting a market day after day after day because they "know" the economy is piss poor and this things going down only an idiot would be long here based on the most recent data we have on Peking duck imports.

I had to read this a few times to get it to sink in, and then enjoyed your wit.

 

[mbondy]

Welp... there went Izzy's 2892 stop in his large outra-day Dubai account.
Downtrend remains in tact.

Now I know why he plays so much golf - to practice intentionally hitting balls upwind, just like he does in the markets.

 

[vanzandt]

So when do you take your loss? Do you exit now while the market is still at your 73 point stop loss, or do you take your chances and hope for a pullback during RTH? I ask only for journal integrity purposes and because I am unfamiliar with your standard operating procedure (SOP).

Oh. I didn't see the "Izzy's SOP" post so the stop wasn't triggered I guess.
The 2808 short position in the big account remains active.