ES Journal - 2019/2020

[volente_00]

Stop trailed to 2888


Yo Builder


Call up PGA

Can't get any follow through


Still bearish and will pounce again soon

 

[vanzandt]

Short at 2885.25. Double down order set at 2887.50
Stop at 2891.25 for the whole boat.

I'm getting on the Izzy train tonight. "The trend is down".

 

[volente_00]

I'm looking for a 2836 SPX toixh after a disappointing NFP

 

[Buy1Sell2]

As most know, I don't have my hard stop in place during the afterhours as the market is too thin and easily manipulated (unless I have taken a day trade in the afterhours). We'll see what action the jobs report brings us in the hour prior to RTH and then stop myself out manually if need be. ---This is SOP for me

 

[themickey]

Short at 2885.25. Double down order set at 2887.50
Stop at 2891.25 for the whole boat.
I'm getting on the Izzy train tonight. "The trend is down".

I've flipped to the flipside of the flippers, my call now is bullish SP500. The trend will remain up.
Shorts gonna get continually stopped out and frazzled, specially fibo_trader.

 

[Laissez Faire]

For me it's not so much an MA system as a directional trade. MA's help define geography and figure into filters. When price is sideways (MA's twisted, I don't trade. There are many periods of the week which are directional in my tf's.

Well, I don't know your system in detail and I'm sure you need both filters to keep you out of non-directional movements and also adjustment of perhaps both MA values and tick chart settings as market conditions change. The latter being the biggest challenge for all trading systems/approaches. If market conditions were stable always, constructing a system would be easy.

If what you have works for you, it works. But I don't think there's anything 'easy' about it, although the finalized solution might be simple after putting a lot of thought and research behind the rules governing such a system.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I don't know about that. If you take fundamentals and news out of it... it really is just pattern recognition.
I'd be willing to bet if you taught a bright kid a few basics, fed him/her a couple addy's, and parked them in front of a screen full-time for a month or two with a demo account... we might be surprised at the results. I don't see why it wouldn't work.

Really? So, with the high failure rate in day trading you think it's that easy? If so, I think you should hire a few kids and start a fund.

Pattern recognition is a big part of it, but there's a whole lot more to it than that, IMO. Also, I'm not so sure I believe in 'remembering patterns' or visualizations unless your brain is put together that way. The market is simply too complex for that. At least it is for me. I know that I'll often have a visual perception of things, but then run the numbers and find another outcome.

It's like Rickshaw who says you should buy the cash close and sell the cash open because you'll always make money doing that, but then you run the numbers and find it's not true at all. Your memory might believe it to be true.

 

[Laissez Faire]

The strategy, for example, might be buy/short retracements in a trend. That is the general strategy. The set up, on the other hand, is an individual occurrence of whatever conditions have been defined for entry, stop loss, profit taking etc within the individual traders's application of the general strategy, e.g. market is by definition (of the trader's own making) in an uptrend, and he will buy the 5 period thingamajig is less than 20 a 5 minute bar closes higher than the immediately prior 5 minute bar.

None of that matters at all, really, other than that it is the trader's own responsibility to define his set-ups, define "chop," and decide what considerations and concessions must be made with respect to expanding and contracting volatility.

And that last part is the difficult thing, IMO. How do you differentiate between a reversal and a pullback? Is it a deep pullback or an actual reversal? Will that reversal point be tested with a bigger countermove? Have we changed direction from up to down? Or are we going sideways?

That's the part that is NOT easy and where losses quickly accumulate.

In my humble opinion is that the MA's do not give you any information that is not already discernible to the naked eye on a naked chart. But they sure do make it easier to discern it quickly and easily while wasting time posting on a trading forum lol.

This is important, IMO. Indicators are objective and reduces interpretation. So, I see a whole lot of value in using them, although I personally have not found anything yet which I use consistently for trading signals. I do have some which calculates other stuff though.

Bottom line, Laissez Faire, if you could sit by my side at my trading desk, and if you and I were to discuss the intraday price action as it unfolded before our eyes, we would likely disagree about very, very little. These forums, impersonal and one dimensional as they are, do not make for the best medium for interpersonal communication. But hey, it is what we got, right?

Well, from what I've read from your posts we seem to often be on the same side of the market. But there's a wide range of opinions in this thread and others, so everyone interprets things differently.

Personally, I try to avoid interpretation because I often interpret things wrong. And that's why I'm skeptical towards a pure chartist approach also. At least for myself.

 

[cowf]

Good morning, this morning. I anticipate we are continuing long ahead and into the JOBS data, we should retrace into and around 2883.00 - 2880.00, 2874.00 extreme. If we remain supported at 2870.00 and JOBS increase, I will remain confident for the break of 2888.00, and then anticipate a target of 2913.00.

Anticipation for negative JOBS data, 2870.00 break down, with target of 2830.00. For now...

 

[vanzandt]

Pattern recognition is a big part of it, but there's a whole lot more to it than that, IMO. Also, I'm not so sure I believe in 'remembering patterns' or visualizations unless your brain is put together that way.

Well certainly... there is more to it, thats why I said you need a few basics. There's different patterns for different situations. Thats why you draw the various support/res levels, moving averages, etc. and see where you're at. And again I'm talking scalping in this particular case, certainly not holding for any period.
And yeah, everyone's brain is wired different. I don't "consciously" memorize patterns, they just sink in I guess. Different strokes.