ES Journal - 2019/2020

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You get the feeling a sell could be coming anytime now, but my intraday model gives a very high probability (9/10) of the LOD in and a new HOD coming.

With an 11,75 point RTH range so far - something should give.

Let's not forget yesterday's deep pullback down to the LOD before rallying into the Close.
 
Laissez Faire said:
You get the feeling a sell could be coming anytime now, but my intraday model gives a very high probability (9/10) of the LOD in and a new HOD coming.

With an 11,75 point RTH range so far - something should give.

Let's not forget yesterday's deep pullback down to the LOD before rallying into the Close.
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Spx touched 2/21 gap today


short term

RTM trade is ~ 60 lower


Longer term


DFTFF

DFTEP
 
SammyJ said:
Show the board your p@l with your trades and lets see if you actually profited from it . You have a chance to be a rock star if you can prove you acted on it .
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Actually, I was a rock star (guitar player) or semi-professional musician in my youth, but that's another story. :) I'm not selling anything, trying to mentor anyone or making any claims. Just making the occasional comment in this journal.

Forecasting and trading are very different.

Forecasting is risk free and there's nothing on the line except looking like a fool.

If I forecast the day or week ahead - it's usually limited to the LOD/HOD. The path in between can be wild and risky with a lot of heat.

Trading is risky as you have actual money on the line. And since the forecasts rarely are 100 % - I still don't have the confidence to fully trust them when actual money is on the line. And I'm not interested in letting a winner turn into a loss because I got greedy either. So, usually I'm happy with a modest daily profit.

Today (now) is a good example. Just flattened a long at 18, actually. I still think we make a new HOD today, but I'm not confident enough to enter from here, so I'm calling it a day with 5,5 points in my pocket.

Yesterday was 4,50 points gross. So, quite a discrepancy between the forecast and the trading results.

Monday was 20,50 points.

I know there's traders way, way better than me here, but I'm trying. :)

The week so far:

upload_2020-8-5_19-49-43.png
 
Laissez Faire said:
You get the feeling a sell could be coming anytime now, but my intraday model gives a very high probability (9/10) of the LOD in and a new HOD coming.

With an 11,75 point RTH range so far - something should give.

Let's not forget yesterday's deep pullback down to the LOD before rallying into the Close.
More...

2 hour and 4 hour charts show we are ripe for another move up. But based on screen time alone, I’ve seen this similar PA sell off more often than not. I’m on sidelines for time being. Daily goal already hit
 
Laissez Faire said:
You get the feeling a sell could be coming anytime now, but my intraday model gives a very high probability (9/10) of the LOD in and a new HOD coming.

With an 11,75 point RTH range so far - something should give.

Let's not forget yesterday's deep pullback down to the LOD before rallying into the Close.
More...
x2
 
vanzandt said:
Ultimately, this market is standing on the thin ice of "a vaccine is on the way".
I suppose that is the case. But just how far forward is the market willing to look?

Obviously we have a big election coming too. Politics aside, Biden is the heavy favorite. That is not going to be good for the Wall Street psyche. I don't think... unless they think he's just going to let the printing presses roar.

Solar is already reflecting his win. Green Deal and all.
Interesting E&C is not.

Part of me says, just like in 2000, 2008,.... in a far away future world we'll all be looking back and say "how'd we not see it coming?"
Oh America will survive and thrive... but every now and then we need a reality check. A reset.
jmo though. We'll see.
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One could argue the reset was back in March?
 
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