In Los Angeles gyms are still closed, unemployment has run out, and except for tech companies normal companies are posting bad earnings and filing for bankruptcy. So I am doing a 1 contract trade and let's see if it works out.
ES Journal - 2019/2020
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Well I killed the trade and reversed to long on talks that stimulus are doing well. I am looking for a 9 point profit to get back to BE. I need to stop fighting the trend.
So far the long is working out, looks like shorts are burning and Santa has decided fly with bags of money and drop them on people's houses tonight.
Guys. I knew I said bye for now, but I just updated my weekly forecast model and the results/probabilities are simply too strong to not share with my fellow ES traders and they only support what I said prior to Monday's Open and what the charts otherwise are saying.
Here goes:
- The odds for the week low being in are 89 %.
- The week high will print either today, tomorrow or Friday, but odds favor Friday. A conservative estimate will be 3350 for the Week High.
- There's an 89 % probability of closing at top of the weekly range.
Currently, I'm flat. Sadly. If I had these numbers yesterday I would probably have gone long at 3300, but I was thinking we might see a pullback from that level before the next leg up.
It's tempting to buy even at these levels, but I'll be waiting for a pullback and will be buying that with confidence based on what I found above.
It's possible Wednesday will be a consolidation day. It's also possible we'll make a strong thrust up today for the Week High and consolidate at the highs for the rest of the week. That part I won't attempt to predict.
But I feel certain about the rest. We're going higher.
Here goes:
- The odds for the week low being in are 89 %.
- The week high will print either today, tomorrow or Friday, but odds favor Friday. A conservative estimate will be 3350 for the Week High.
- There's an 89 % probability of closing at top of the weekly range.
Currently, I'm flat. Sadly. If I had these numbers yesterday I would probably have gone long at 3300, but I was thinking we might see a pullback from that level before the next leg up.
It's tempting to buy even at these levels, but I'll be waiting for a pullback and will be buying that with confidence based on what I found above.
It's possible Wednesday will be a consolidation day. It's also possible we'll make a strong thrust up today for the Week High and consolidate at the highs for the rest of the week. That part I won't attempt to predict.
But I feel certain about the rest. We're going higher.
"Woulda shoulda coulda........."
How have you or your system changed since yesterday?
If the answer is "nothing changed" then nothing's changed.
"Woula shoulda coulda" coming again to a thread near you.
Actually, nothing changed as the last input was Tuesday's Close. But it takes some time to update and sort the data and I didn't do that part until this morning.
Generally, I only day trade, so it's not a priority. The weekly forecast model is just something I'm doing to help that and which I might start to trade more consistently as swing trades eventually. Often, it's not a strong indication either way, but seeing how strong the numbers were this morning I figured I could share it.
"Woulda shoulda coulda........."
"Woula shoulda coulda" coming again to a thread near you.
The would have/could have/should have trade right now is to go long on any decent pullback from here.
Particularly if we hold above 3300 it should be a fantastic long trade. The market is however so strong right now we might not get that.
There is the small chance we drop below 3300 (but not below 3280) today for a consolidation. But as long as 3300 holds we should be good.
Now, make some money $$$.
Hmmmm.
We may creep higher, but I'd be willing to bet at some point before 8/21, we see a sharp reset back to the 3200 area.
Ultimately, this market is standing on the thin ice of "a vaccine is on the way".
I suppose that is the case. But just how far forward is the market willing to look?
Obviously we have a big election coming too. Politics aside, Biden is the heavy favorite. That is not going to be good for the Wall Street psyche. I don't think... unless they think he's just going to let the printing presses roar.
Solar is already reflecting his win. Green Deal and all.
Interesting E&C is not.
Part of me says, just like in 2000, 2008,.... in a far away future world we'll all be looking back and say "how'd we not see it coming?"
Oh America will survive and thrive... but every now and then we need a reality check. A reset.
jmo though. We'll see.
I suppose that is the case. But just how far forward is the market willing to look?
Obviously we have a big election coming too. Politics aside, Biden is the heavy favorite. That is not going to be good for the Wall Street psyche. I don't think... unless they think he's just going to let the printing presses roar.
Solar is already reflecting his win. Green Deal and all.
Interesting E&C is not.
Part of me says, just like in 2000, 2008,.... in a far away future world we'll all be looking back and say "how'd we not see it coming?"
Oh America will survive and thrive... but every now and then we need a reality check. A reset.
jmo though. We'll see.
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