ES Journal - 2019/2020

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Spooz Top 2 said:
I have a close friend that works for the NY Fed that builds models and Algorithms to anticipate & prevent future debacles by staying ahead of the curve... This current Black Swan was the absolute worst time for this to hit the average American household.... personal debt is at a screaming All- Time Hi... even worse than the ‘08 debacle.. as this time around showed credit spending was Not to be excessive spending but just to make ends meet and to sustain ones standard of living with necessities... This is the tipping point for most US households!

Btw, he and I had a bet for Dinner at Lugers in ‘06 on how the housing situation would end.. “A foreclosure on every corner across the nation with “People got Sold out ... Banks got bailed out” with Taxpayer money, to add insult to injury...was my synopsis .. as there were astronomical option arms resetting on ‘08 & ‘09.... Needless to say whom enjoyed their Rib Eye more that night!
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Peter Luger's mmm
 
Holy cow...

Gap down CL... I didn't see this coming :D ;)

OK, ok, no posted trade (in this case no trade at all), no bragging rights
 
Boom...right off the bat at 6pm....crude down around 9%. ES up 30. Interesting....I would have thought ES would follow crude at this point.
 
Es looks pretty strong here. Crazy gap right after the first few trades. The 2176 lows of 2 Sundays ago looks very solid for right now. Downsides been very choppy here
 
At this point CL is kind of splitting the difference between 20 and 30....which makes sense. 20 was too dour and 30 was too optimistic in the near term.
 
Imho to get to 2000 or below one of a few things has to happen. The virus affects have to last into the fall or winter. Have some major dislocation or chaos.One of those could easily happen. Ackman talking his book




Bill Ackman

✔@BillAckman
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1246871977064792064

I am beginning to get optimistic. Cases appear to be peaking in NY. Almost the entire country is in shutdown. Hydroxychloriquine and antibiotics appear to help. There is increasing evidence that the asymptomatic infection rate could be as much as 50X higher than expected.


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2:46 PM - Apr 5, 2020
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