ES Journal - 2017/2018

[Laissez Faire]

My stance, which I've reiterated here a few times, has been that the market is in a wide-swinging range that was established in Feb of this year. I don't recall at any time insinuating that the market wouldn't test the bottom of the range although I've been watching the tape periodically for signs of strength in the interim. End of day today it was overwhelmingly obvious where all the buyers have been waiting - right at the bottom.

Anyone can see the market is overvalued, rates are rising, etc etc and EVERYONE is waiting for a crash or a severe correction - I can't remember who said it, but it was something like 'the more observed something is, the less likely it is to happen.' I tend to agree with that.

In any event, good trading and all that.

That's one hell of a trading range!

I'm not sure how much @mastacoli71 was anticipating, but when you disagree with him saying it can't go much lower, it does not sound like you can expect it to drop another 70 points or so (to the February lows).

As for the buying at the close, a 40 point move would normally be impressive, but considering the 104 point preceding down move, it's not even a 50 % retrace.

The massive bounce just prior to close is a good indication that selling now has nearly been exhausted. Staying long here.

See above. We had several such days last week. They were not good indications that selling was exhausted.

Could yesterday have been the swing low on this massive sell-off? It's possible? Personally, I think it's too early to tell...

 

[Laissez Faire]

On ES, the correction in January/February was -11,88 % over 11 days. 343 points down.

Currently, we're down -11,61 % over 18 days. 341,75 points down.

Makes you wonder if one can start anticipating a bottom here. Yet, I have a gut feeling that a test of the February low (2544,00) is a possibillity. That would be a 400,00 point move and a correction of roughly 14 %. A stretch perhaps. But who knows...

 

[mbondy]

That's one hell of a trading range!

I'm not sure how much @mastacoli71 was anticipating, but when you disagree with him saying it can't go much lower, it does not sound like you can expect it to drop another 70 points or so (to the February lows).

As for the buying at the close, a 40 point move would normally be impressive, but considering the 104 point preceding down move, it's not even a 50 % retrace...

After February, when the market did not do what i thought it would do for the reasons that i thought it would do it, i had to reconsider my analysis and figure out the terrain for the rest of the year. My conclusion was that we would range between our Feb highs and lows. A big range? Maybe. I dont trade intraday so I'm not as excited as you guys and I don't trade indexes, I just use them as a barometer. Positionally, I'm okay still.

This 'sell-off' has been really strange because normally during a downturn, i can see on the tape that buyers are being overwhelmed by sellers and its scary to watch and very volatile - but i really havent seen any buying of note, just a straight drop from the top with not a lot of resistance. I mentioned somewhere that i i thought large participants were standing aside, waiting, because thats what i see. However, yesterday at the close was a clear indication of buyers stepping in. Don't underestimate them.

I have a plethora of economic rhetoric for why this market should turn down. But it's not going to. There is no crisis. And the forces behind the bull market are still very present.

Good luck to everyone, bulls and bears alike.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

OK, one of us is an idiot, and I am not sure it is me. You posted that at 9:44 am on Friday, just about when the market was going into a free fall. 80 minutes later the market bottomed 40 points LOWER so how the fuck were you very correct? Then a huge bounce came and it topped 20 points higher then your call, but as usual you would have held it and by the close price was 10 points lower then at 9:44.

Unless we are looking at different charts....

Market rallied 20 points from my intraday call and so it was considered a huge intraday buy. It was a very very good call.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Highly unlikely that we'll trade below 2630 today. Everything points to higher prices for the next several days on the back of the strong bounce at closing yesterday.

 

[Pekelo]

Market rallied 20 points from my intraday call and so it was considered a huge intraday buy. It was a very very good call.

You just don't give up, do you? Market DROPPED 40 points first AFTER your long call and later when reversed it did go 20 points in your favour, but knowing you, you would have held and by the close the position was at -10.

But if you trade with a 40+ points stop loss and 20 points target then yes, it was an excellent call!!

 

[Buy1Sell2]

You just don't give up, do you? Market DROPPED 40 points first AFTER your long call and later when reversed it did go 20 points in your favour, but knowing you, you would have held and by the close the position was at -10.

But if you trade with a 40+ points stop loss and 20 points target then yes, it was an excellent call!!

Market immediately rallied 20 pts from my call. That's a tremendous intraday gain. You likely have your time zones off.

 

[Pekelo]

Market immediately rallied 20 pts from my call. That's a tremendous intraday gain. You likely have your time zones off.

It is true I am in Europe right now, so I might have been wrong on this one. I am not sure ET is showing Eastern time or my local time but your long call was posted at 9:44 am. Anyhow let's test, this post is at 4:34 pm local...

 

[beerntrading]

Good luck. Trend is down on weekly and daily. There will be bounce. BTFD’ers are well conditioned now...that is one of the reasons why I believe more pain is to come.

LHs, LLs...trend in tact. Options markets have been mixed lately and I'm blowing trades at a higher percentage than usual. I look at that as a changing of the guard. We already have AMZN, MSFT, and GOOG earnings out, and market hasn't taken the chance to go up. That said, I see no fundamental shift that would necessarily end a bull market and start a bearish one.

 

[mastacoli71]

Market has a memory. It likes to revisit old numbers.

No matter what spin B1S2 and mbondy put on the mkt, they both know in their hearts the deck is currently stacked against them. Unfortunately they are married to their positions and can’t seem to let go. But hey it’s their money so all the more power to them.

That's one hell of a trading range!

I'm not sure how much @mastacoli71 was anticipating, but when you disagree with him saying it can't go much lower, it does not sound like you can expect it to drop another 70 points or so (to the February lows).

As for the buying at the close, a 40 point move would normally be impressive, but considering the 104 point preceding down move, it's not even a 50 % retrace.



See above. We had several such days last week. They were not good indications that selling was exhausted.

Could yesterday have been the swing low on this massive sell-off? It's possible? Personally, I think it's too early to tell...