I am trading mostly short on this move down because that is the current trend according to weekly and daily chart. Find it much easier to trade with the bigger trend then against it. Until we break above 2822, I will not take a longer term position long. To me there is no sense in it waking up one morning with mkt limit down for some whatever reason or another.
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ES Journal - 2017/2018
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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What would be silly is adding to the position. I never do that.
It would be hard to imagine that we would fall as far as 2535 Cash. We'll see. I am betting we won't. One thing you have to remember is that I can hold positions a long long time since I keep 20 percent or less of my TLNW in trading accounts and keep my leverage low (2 times) on position trades.
Similar moves have happened in the past. One doesn't even have to imagine.
I understand you're in no danger of blowing up, so not worried about that at all. But I assume you want to read the market correctly and profit on your trades regardless, so my points are valid. If you knew the market would have dropped this much, I bet you'd liquidated your long for a nice profit and played the short side.
Having a strong bias can be very dangerous in this game.
As for what from here, I'm certainly cluesless. I think there are key levels where it's possible to make an educated guess about long term development. Right now, I feel we're in a spot where it's not that easy. But the trend is no doubt down, so I'd certainly guess we have more downside still. How much is hard to tell.
In this thread, I have always held a generally opposing view to b1s1. Certainly, I was banking on a continuing decline in feb-april of this year with the acceleration of QT and a few other variables that are removing liquidity from the system... but guess what? The market floated and didn't continue down. All you guys proclaiming your short-term genius at the market being down 10% should think before you speak lest you look like fools when in three weeks, it's back to ath's.
There are two different discussions here: b1's personal trading and the mid to long term view of the market direction. I've never been a proponent of b1's trading style and I given my $0.02 in the past so enough said, but I'll admit to having switched to the darkside with my long-term market view - this bull is going to continue for longer than anyone imagines. I am fully invested and long equities.
Good luck to all.
There are two different discussions here: b1's personal trading and the mid to long term view of the market direction. I've never been a proponent of b1's trading style and I given my $0.02 in the past so enough said, but I'll admit to having switched to the darkside with my long-term market view - this bull is going to continue for longer than anyone imagines. I am fully invested and long equities.
Good luck to all.
And that’s what makes a market...buyers and sellers.
My 2 cents: being long right now just to squeeze another 15-20% out of a potential blow off top vs. risking 50% downside makes absolutely zero sense to me.
Best of luck to the Uber bulls and Uber shorts. One side will eventually prevail!
My 2 cents: being long right now just to squeeze another 15-20% out of a potential blow off top vs. risking 50% downside makes absolutely zero sense to me.
Best of luck to the Uber bulls and Uber shorts. One side will eventually prevail!
In this thread, I have always held a generally opposing view to b1s1. Certainly, I was banking on a continuing decline in feb-april of this year with the acceleration of QT and a few other variables that are removing liquidity from the system... but guess what? The market floated and didn't continue down. All you guys proclaiming your short-term genius at the market being down 10% should think before you speak lest you look like fools when in three weeks, it's back to ath's.
There are two different discussions here: b1's personal trading and the mid to long term view of the market direction. I've never been a proponent of b1's trading style and I given my $0.02 in the past so enough said, but I'll admit to having switched to the darkside with my long-term market view - this bull is going to continue for longer than anyone imagines. I am fully invested and long equities.
Good luck to all.
And that’s what makes a market...buyers and sellers.
My 2 cents: being long right now just to squeeze another 15-20% out of a potential blow off top vs. risking 50% downside makes absolutely zero sense to me.
Best of luck to the Uber bulls and Uber shorts. One side will eventually prevail!
You are presuming of course that there is only 15-20% upside left in the market - what if there's 100%? Then we'd all look like idiots.
I'm prone to believe that the market will do exactly what everyone thinks it can't and won't do.
You are presuming of course that there is only 15-20% upside left in the market - what if there's 100%? Then we'd all look like idiots.
I'm prone to believe that the market will do exactly what everyone thinks it can't and won't do.
The only way I see that happening is more QE around the world and rates going back to virtually zero, both of which are going the opposite direction and it doesn’t appear the fed is willing to take foot off the gas.
It just can’t go any lower
The fat lady hasn't sung yet.
Incredible volatility. I hope it will last a few weeks more.
Incredible volatility. I hope it will last a few weeks more.
This can go much lower. The point of max pain has not been realized so far.
This can go much lower. The point of max pain has not been realized so far.
Doubt it.
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